Tools · Free Dataset · CC BY 4.0 · Updated 2026-08-21
The Track Record
Every call this site publishes, in one graded ledger: the entry it was struck against, the implied move at the time, what actually happened, and whether the call won. Passes are scored like everything else, because "don't buy the straddle" has a P&L consequence too. This is a paper record of published calls, not executed trades, and the losses are listed with the same precision as the wins: methodology and scoring rules.
Calls on the ledger
149
78 scored, 51 open, 10 pending entry, 10 unscorable
Hit rate
56%
44 wins, 34 losses, passes scored
Expectancy
+20.0%
6 priced calls; needs 5+ to mean anything
Conviction calibration
31 calls
recorded on every call since 2026-08-14
Hit Rate Is Not Edge
Why the headline number is not enough
A 70% hit rate loses money if the winners average +5% and the losers average -20%. A 40% hit rate can compound if the wins run and the losses are cut. So this page reports expectancy alongside the hit rate: win rate times average win, minus loss rate times average loss, per unit of risk. Expectancy only exists for priced calls: a call with a stated or modelled cost. Passes carry no return by construction, so on a ledger this young the expectancy sample is tiny, and the table says "too few" rather than dressing up two data points as a statistic.
Two scores per call
Every row is graded twice. Thesis accuracy: did the predicted phenomenon happen? Call result: did the published call win, scored on the whole position? The distinction finds out where a process fails. A straddle buyer who correctly predicts realised beating implied but picks a structure that bleeds anyway has a research edge and an execution problem, and only separate scores can show it. On the seeded backlog the two coincide, because nearly every early call was a pass; they diverge as priced calls accumulate.
By Category
Directional stock calls, options-direction calls, volatility calls, event calls and macro calls have different statistical properties, so there is no blended "score" across them. The volatility bucket dominates the early ledger because the site's trade logs grew out of earnings previews.
| Category | Scored | W-L | Hit rate | Thesis accuracy | Priced calls | Expectancy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stock direction | 13 | 8-5 | 62% | 54% | 0 | too few |
| Options direction | 13 | 7-6 | 54% | 54% | 0 | too few |
| Volatility | 49 | 27-22 | 55% | 53% | 6 | +20.0% |
| Event | 3 | 2-1 | 67% | 67% | 0 | too few |
| Macro / sector | 0 | 0-0 | n/a | n/a | 0 | too few |
Conviction Calibration
| Conviction | Calls scored | Thesis correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4/10 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 5/10 | 8 | 5 | 63% |
| 6/10 | 10 | 5 | 50% |
| 7/10 | 10 | 6 | 60% |
| 8/10 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
Open Calls
Tracked calls with a sourced entry and a live mark. They sit outside the hit rate until they close, so unrealised gains never pad the record.
| Ticker | Structure | Entry | Latest mark | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COTY | Long straddle at the $3.00 strike, Aug 21 weekly expiry, into the August 19 fiscal Q4 print | $2.85, close, 2026-08-14 | $3.03, August 19 regular close $3.03, up 10.58% on the day the company named a new CFO, which carried the stock through the $3.00 strike before the print. Coty then reported the -$0.02 adjusted EPS its guide implied, $1,269.2m of revenue with LFL down 1%, and guided only fiscal Q1; extended-hours quote $2.83 at 4:35pm ET. Scored on the August 20 close. | +6.3% |
| BILL | Long $55/$65 call spread, January 2027 expiry, held through the August 19 fiscal Q4 print and the FY27 guide | $49.78, close, 2026-08-14 | $47.71, August 19 regular close $47.71, down 2.97% ahead of the after-close print. BILL beat its own fiscal Q4 guide on every line ($0.84 non-GAAP EPS against $0.69-0.72, core revenue up 16%) and guided FY27 revenue up 9-12% with non-GAAP operating income up 30-39%. Quoted near $48.35 at 4:28pm ET in extended hours. Scored on the August 20 close. | -4.2% |
| BILL | Pass on a long straddle at the $50 strike, Aug 21 weekly expiry, into the August 19 fiscal Q4 print | $49.78, close, 2026-08-14 | $47.71, August 19 regular close $47.71, down 2.97% ahead of the after-close print. BILL beat its own fiscal Q4 guide on every line ($0.84 non-GAAP EPS against $0.69-0.72, core revenue up 16%) and guided FY27 revenue up 9-12% with non-GAAP operating income up 30-39%. Quoted near $48.35 at 4:28pm ET in extended hours. Scored on the August 20 close. | -4.2% |
| AAP | Long $60/$70 call spread, October 16 2026 expiry, into the August 20 Q2 print | $56.55, close, 2026-08-14 | $42.39, AAP closed $42.39, down 25.0% from the $56.55 entry. The $60/$70 call spread needs a 41%+ rally by the Oct 16 expiry; tracking near worthless. | -25.0% |
| AAP | Pass on selling naked premium into the August 20 Q2 print | $56.55, close, 2026-08-14 | $42.39, AAP closed $42.39, down 25.0% from the $56.55 entry, nearly double the +/-14.3% implied move. The print did not resolve inside the implied move, so this pass tracks as a win. | -25.0% |
| KLC | long shares after the 45% drop | $2.65, intraday, 2026-08-14 | $2.74, August 21 close about $2.74, +3.4% from the $2.65 entry. Still about 43% below the pre-crash $4.83 close, and JPMorgan (Sell), UBS and BMO all cut targets the week after the print. The thesis is scored against the Q3 2026 print, not this week's drift, so this stays open. | +3.4% |
| UMAC | long September 2026 call on UMAC (strikes not sourced) | $32.83, intraday, 2026-08-14 | $27.505, August 21 close about $27.51, down 16.2% from the $32.83 entry. The September expiry this call would need has not arrived, and neither has the tariff date it was trying to price: the general Section 232 drone-tariff effective date is September 3 2026, still ahead. A bought call is underwater on delta alone so far. | -16.2% |
| USO | WTI crude holds above $80 through end-September 2026 (spot view, no option leg) | $82.4, intraday, 2026-08-14 | $86.7, WTI around $86.70 on August 21, comfortably above the $80 level and up from the $82.40 entry. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed over the August 15-16 weekend (Kpler ship-tracking data) and the UAE accused Iran of a third tanker attack; the call holds so far, and this is scored against an end-September checkpoint, not this week. | +5.2% |
| NU | long NU common stock, no expiry, scored on the Q3 2026 earnings reaction session | $15.23, close, 2026-08-14 | $14.58, August 21 close $14.58, down 4.27% from the $15.23 entry. This call is scored against the Q3 2026 print, not this week's pullback; the reason to hold (ROE, NIM) has not yet been tested by a new quarter. | -4.3% |
| BIDU | long BIDU common stock, entered on the August 18 2026 close after the print, 12-month horizon | $90.87, close, 2026-08-18 | $93.21, August 21 close $93.21, up 2.57% from the $90.87 entry. This is a 12-month call and stays open; the balance-sheet-floor thesis (net cash covering 79% of market cap) has not been tested by any new data point yet. | +2.6% |
| NTES | long NTES common stock, 12-month horizon | $125.12, close, 2026-08-14 | $128.17, August 21 close $128.17, up 2.44% from the $125.12 entry, after round-tripping through a $119.81 post-print low on August 20. The thesis is that Q3 marks on NetEase's Alibaba and Pinduoduo stakes reverse the depressed Q2 profit number; that mark has not printed yet. | +2.4% |
| ADI | Conditional post-print long (shares or 1-2 month calls), triggered if the fiscal Q4 guide carried adjusted operating margin above 49.0%, struck off the August 19 open | $378.55, open, 2026-08-19 | $373.09, August 21 close $373.09, down 1.44% from the $378.55 trigger-day entry. Two sessions in on a stated one-to-two-month thesis; still too early to grade. A record quarter and a margin guide that beat by a point (52.0% vs. the 49.0% trigger) sold off anyway, which reads as the multiple having already priced above the company's own guide. | -1.4% |
| AMD | conditional post-print long (proxy entry) | $482.05, 2026-08-05 | $483.36, Aug 7 close | +0.3%Roughly flat. |
| SPCX | shares, post-unlock momentum long | $114.92, close, 2026-08-06 | $141.29, Aug 13 close | +22.9% |
| SMCI | shares, post-print long | $34.99, open, 2026-08-12 | $39.16, Aug 13 close | +11.9% |
| SE | shares, post-print long | $114.91, close | $128.11, Aug 12 close | +11.5% |
| SNDK | two-month confirmation calls, Oct expiry, struck off the Aug 6 open | $1,258.58, open, 2026-08-06 | $1,528.11, underlying, Aug 13 close | +21.4%Underlying +21.4%; the option leg has no live mark. |
| AMAT | any pre-print options position | $508, close, 2026-08-03 | $507.18, Aug 14 2026 close, $507.18 per stockanalysis.com quote page at 4:00pm ET; the same site's history table shows $506.00 and the roughly $1 gap is unreconciled | -0.2% |
| AMAT | post-print long (shares or 1-2 month calls), struck off the August 14 2026 open | $499.4, open, 2026-08-14 | $507.18, Aug 14 2026 close, $507.18 per stockanalysis.com quote page at 4:00pm ET; the same site's history table shows $506.00 and the roughly $1 gap is unreconciled | +1.6% |
32 further calls are open without a mark, awaiting a settled session to grade against.
By Ticker
Every name with a logged call has its own page: the scoreboard and ledger for that ticker alone.
AMD 5NU 5AMAT 4BABA 4MU 4RDDT 4SNDK 4TGT 4BIDU 3DKNG 3FN 3PLTR 3RUM 3SE 3SHOP 3SMCI 3SPCX 3USO 3AAOI 2AAP 2ABNB 2ADI 2APP 2ARGX 2AUNA 2AVGO 2BILL 2CAPR 2CRCL 2DDOG 2DE 2DIS 2GOOGL 2KEYS 2LLY 2LZB 2META 2MRCY 2MRNA 2NTES 2NTNX 2PDD 2RARE 2SKHY 2TJX 2TNON 2TTD 2TTWO 2UBER 2UMAC 2WEAV 2WOLF 2ZYME 2AVB 1CAVA 1COTY 1EYPT 1HD 1KLC 1KOID 1KSTR 1KXIAY 1NVDA 1OKLO 1ROST 1VALN 1VST 1XOS 1
The Full Ledger
One row per call, newest week first, losses shown with the same weight as wins. Pending rows are triggered conditionals whose entry has not been sourced yet; unscorable rows are published calls that can never be graded and stay on the ledger anyway, because deleting them would flatter the record. The CSV carries every field, including the thesis text and exit details.
Week of 2026-08-17
Week of 2026-08-10 · scorecard
Week of 2026-08-03 · scorecard
| Ticker | Call | Entry | Implied | Realised | Return on risk | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | pass: long straddle into the printVolatility, logged 2026-08-03 | $125.65, close, 2026-08-03 | 10-15% | +29.4% | Loss | |
| PLTR | pass: short premium into the print (any structure)Volatility, logged 2026-08-03 | $125.65, close, 2026-08-03 | 10-15% | +29.4% | Win | |
| PLTR | long: conditional post-print long (shares or 1-2 month calls)Stock direction, logged 2026-08-03 | not sourced | Pending entry | |||
| AMD | pass: long straddle into the printVolatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $484.64, close, 2026-08-03 | 12.3% | -0.3% | Win | |
| AMD | pass: short premium into the print (any structure)Volatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $484.64, close, 2026-08-03 | 12.3% | -0.3% | Loss | |
| AMD | long: conditional post-print long (proxy entry)Stock direction, logged 2026-08-04 | $482.05, 2026-08-05 | Open | |||
| SHOP | pass: long straddle into the printVolatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $126.88, close, 2026-08-03 | 12.5% | +13.7% | Loss | |
| SHOP | pass: short premium into the print (any structure)Volatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $126.88, close, 2026-08-03 | 12.5% | +13.7% | Win | |
| SHOP | long: conditional post-print long (shares or 1-2 month calls)Stock direction, logged 2026-08-04 | not sourced | Pending entry | |||
| DDOG | long: long straddle into the printVolatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $273.6, close, 2026-08-03 | 13% | +17.0% | +30.8%modeled | Win |
| DDOG | pass: short premium into the print (any structure)Volatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $273.6, close, 2026-08-03 | 13% | +17.0% | Win | |
| TTD | long: long straddle into the printVolatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $18.3, close, 2026-08-03 | 13% | -24.6% | +89.2%modeled | Win |
| TTD | pass: short premium into the print (any structure)Volatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $18.3, close, 2026-08-03 | 13% | -24.6% | Win | |
| TTWO | pass: long straddle into the printVolatility, logged 2026-08-03 | $242.92 | 7.7% | +1.5% | Win | |
| TTWO | pass: short premium into the print (any structure)Volatility, logged 2026-08-03 | $242.92 | 7.7% | +1.5% | Loss | |
| VST | pass: any pre-print options positionVolatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $141.38, close, 2026-07-31 | 6.4% | -0.6% | Win | |
| OKLO | pass: any pre-print positionVolatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $41.22, close, 2026-07-31 | 13% | +17.5% | Loss | |
| CAVA | pass: any pre-print positionVolatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $65.23 | 11-14% | +6.5% | Win | |
| UBER | pass: long straddle into the printVolatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $71.61 | 7-8% | -4.8% | Win | |
| UBER | pass: short premium into the print (any structure)Volatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $71.61 | 7-8% | -4.8% | Loss | |
| DIS | pass: any pre-print options positionVolatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $98.14, close, 2026-08-03 | 6% | +3.7% | Win | |
| DIS | long: conditional post-print long (shares or 1-2 month calls)Stock direction, logged 2026-08-04 | not sourced | Pending entry | |||
| LLY | pass: any pre-print options positionVolatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $1,121.36, close, 2026-08-03 | 6.9-7.4% | +4.5% | Win | |
| LLY | long: conditional post-print long (shares or defined-risk call spread)Stock direction, logged 2026-08-04 | not sourced | Pending entry | |||
| SPCX | pass: long put into the unlock weekOptions direction, logged 2026-08-03 | $108.37 | 12.5% | +22.8% | Win | |
| SPCX | pass: long straddle into the unlock weekVolatility, logged 2026-08-03 | $108.37 | 12.5% | +22.8% | Loss | |
| SPCX | long: shares, post-unlock momentum longStock direction, logged 2026-08-07 | $114.92, close, 2026-08-06 | Open | |||
| SMCI | pass: long straddle into the printVolatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $28.4, close | 18% | +32.4% | Loss | |
| SMCI | pass: short premium into the print (any structure)Volatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $28.4, close | 18% | +32.4% | Win | |
| SMCI | long: shares, post-print longStock direction, logged 2026-08-12 | $34.99, open, 2026-08-12 | Open | |||
| SE | pass: long straddle into the printVolatility, logged 2026-08-06 | $114.91, close | 19.1% | +14.5% | Win | |
| SE | pass: short premium into the print (any structure)Volatility, logged 2026-08-06 | $114.91, close | 19.1% | +14.5% | Loss | |
| SE | long: shares, post-print longStock direction, logged 2026-08-06 | $114.91, close | Open | |||
| MU | pass: long puts on the gap, Aug 7 weeklyOptions direction, logged 2026-08-03 | $801, premarket, 2026-08-03 | +9.6% | Win | ||
| MU | pass: selling premium (covered call or cash-secured put), any August expiryVolatility, logged 2026-08-03 | $801, premarket, 2026-08-03 | Unscorable | |||
| SNDK | pass: long strangle into the Aug 5 print, Aug 7 weekly, first strikes either side of spotVolatility, logged 2026-08-03 | $1,214.83, close, 2026-07-31 | 17.5-25% | Unscorable | ||
| MU | pass: selling MU puts (suspended), any near-dated expiryVolatility, logged 2026-07-16 | $903, close, 2026-07-15 | Unscorable | |||
| MU | pass: pair: MU puts against long SNDKOptions direction, logged 2026-07-16 | not sourced | Unscorable | |||
| GOOGL | pass: chasing calls on the DeepMind-shakeup dipOptions direction, logged 2026-08-05 | $379.72, intraday, 2026-08-05 | -9.5% | Win | ||
| GOOGL | short: short premium, $366-381 strike zoneVolatility, logged 2026-08-05 | $379.72, intraday, 2026-08-05 | -9.5% | Loss | ||
| META | pass: chasing calls into the gapOptions direction, logged 2026-08-03 | $580, intraday, 2026-08-03 | +2.0% | Win | ||
| META | pass: short premium into the gap (any structure)Volatility, logged 2026-08-03 | $580, intraday, 2026-08-03 | +2.0% | Loss | ||
| DKNG | pass: long straddle into the printVolatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $22.17, close | 9% | +8.4% | Win | |
| DKNG | pass: short premium into the print (any structure)Volatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $22.17, close | 9% | +8.4% | Loss | |
| DKNG | long: conditional post-call long (shares or 1-2 month calls)Stock direction, logged 2026-08-04 | not sourced | Unscorable | |||
| APP | pass: long straddle into the printVolatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $406.16 | 12-13% | -17.4% | Loss | |
| APP | pass: short premium into the print (any structure)Volatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $406.16 | 12-13% | -17.4% | Win | |
| SKHY | pass: long calls into the shareholder-return catalystOptions direction, logged 2026-08-03 | $143.73 | +15.3% | Loss | ||
| SKHY | pass: short puts into the shareholder-return catalystOptions direction, logged 2026-08-03 | $143.73 | +15.3% | Loss | ||
| SNDK | pass: buying the extended-hours dip, immediately post-printStock direction, logged 2026-08-05 | $1,350.5, close, 2026-08-05 | -6.8% | Win | ||
| SNDK | pass: selling premium into the post-print collapse in implied, Aug or Sep expiryVolatility, logged 2026-08-05 | $1,350.5, close, 2026-08-05 | Unscorable | |||
| SNDK | long: two-month confirmation calls, Oct expiry, struck off the Aug 6 openOptions direction, logged 2026-08-05 | $1,258.58, open, 2026-08-06 | Open | |||
| ABNB | pass: any pre-print options positionVolatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $151.6, close, 2026-08-03 | Unscorable | |||
| ABNB | long: conditional post-print long (shares or 1-2 month calls)Stock direction, logged 2026-08-04 | not sourced | Pending entry | |||
| CRCL | pass: any directional pre-print positionOptions direction, logged 2026-08-03 | $61.59, intraday, 2026-08-03 | Unscorable | |||
| CRCL | long: conditional post-print longStock direction, logged 2026-08-03 | not sourced | Pending entry | |||
| AMAT | pass: any pre-print options positionVolatility, logged 2026-08-04 | $508, close, 2026-08-03 | Open | |||
| AMAT | long: post-print long (shares or 1-2 month calls), struck off the August 14 2026 openStock direction, logged 2026-08-04 | $499.4, open, 2026-08-14 | Open |
Use This Data
Licensed CC BY 4.0: copy it, chart it, audit it, including commercially. The only ask is attribution with a link. Suggested citation:
Track Record Ledger, Regards of Wallstreet, retrieved 2026-08-23, https://www.regardsofwallstreet.com/data/track-record
Found a grading error? The methodology page explains how corrections work (they stay visible, they do not vanish), and the contact form reaches us. Related: the Earnings Expectations Database tracks the implied-vs-realised moves these volatility calls are graded against.
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