{ "name": "Track Record Ledger", "publisher": "Regards of Wallstreet", "url": "https://www.regardsofwallstreet.com/data/track-record", "methodology": "https://www.regardsofwallstreet.com/data/track-record/methodology", "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/", "cite_as": "Track Record Ledger, Regards of Wallstreet, https://www.regardsofwallstreet.com/data/track-record", "definitions": { "call_result": "Whether the call as published won, on whole-position scoring, with passes scored as the trade the reader did not make.", "thesis_correct": "Whether the predicted phenomenon happened, separate from whether the structure made money. The two diverge when an instrument expresses a thesis imperfectly.", "return_on_risk_pct": "P&L per unit of risk for priced calls only. basis \"stated\" means a real premium was logged; \"modeled\" means intrinsic value delivered against the implied-move cost of a straddle. Passes carry null: no position, no P&L.", "expectancy_pct": "Win rate x average win - loss rate x average loss, over priced calls, in return-on-risk percent per call.", "conviction": "Recorded 1-10 at logging time from 2026-08-14 onward. Null on older calls; never backfilled." }, "note": "A paper record of calls published on the site. Nothing in it is an executed trade.", "last_updated": "2026-08-21", "generated_at": "2026-08-23T18:18:45.093Z", "stats": { "overall": { "total": 149, "scored": 78, "wins": 44, "losses": 34, "hitRatePct": 56.41025641025641, "thesisScored": 78, "thesisCorrect": 42, "thesisAccuracyPct": 53.84615384615385, "open": 51, "pending": 10, "unscorable": 10, "priced": { "count": 6, "winners": 4, "losers": 2, "winRatePct": 66.66666666666666, "avgWinPct": 47.74642857142857, "avgLossPct": 35.34833229947035, "medianPct": 30.777472527472526, "expectancyPct": 20.04817494779559 } }, "byCategory": { "stock-direction": { "total": 48, "scored": 13, "wins": 8, "losses": 5, "hitRatePct": 61.53846153846154, "thesisScored": 13, "thesisCorrect": 7, "thesisAccuracyPct": 53.84615384615385, "open": 24, "pending": 9, "unscorable": 2, "priced": { "count": 0, "winners": 0, "losers": 0, "winRatePct": null, "avgWinPct": null, "avgLossPct": null, "medianPct": null, "expectancyPct": null } }, "options-direction": { "total": 32, "scored": 13, "wins": 7, "losses": 6, "hitRatePct": 53.84615384615385, "thesisScored": 13, "thesisCorrect": 7, "thesisAccuracyPct": 53.84615384615385, "open": 17, "pending": 0, "unscorable": 2, "priced": { "count": 0, "winners": 0, "losers": 0, "winRatePct": null, "avgWinPct": null, "avgLossPct": null, "medianPct": null, "expectancyPct": null } }, "volatility": { "total": 64, "scored": 49, "wins": 27, "losses": 22, "hitRatePct": 55.10204081632652, "thesisScored": 49, "thesisCorrect": 26, "thesisAccuracyPct": 53.06122448979592, "open": 8, "pending": 1, "unscorable": 6, "priced": { "count": 6, "winners": 4, "losers": 2, "winRatePct": 66.66666666666666, "avgWinPct": 47.74642857142857, "avgLossPct": 35.34833229947035, "medianPct": 30.777472527472526, "expectancyPct": 20.04817494779559 } }, "event": { "total": 4, "scored": 3, "wins": 2, "losses": 1, "hitRatePct": 66.66666666666666, "thesisScored": 3, "thesisCorrect": 2, "thesisAccuracyPct": 66.66666666666666, "open": 1, "pending": 0, "unscorable": 0, "priced": { "count": 0, "winners": 0, "losers": 0, "winRatePct": null, "avgWinPct": null, "avgLossPct": null, "medianPct": null, "expectancyPct": null } }, "macro": { "total": 1, "scored": 0, "wins": 0, "losses": 0, "hitRatePct": null, "thesisScored": 0, "thesisCorrect": 0, "thesisAccuracyPct": null, "open": 1, "pending": 0, "unscorable": 0, "priced": { "count": 0, "winners": 0, "losers": 0, "winRatePct": null, "avgWinPct": null, "avgLossPct": null, "medianPct": null, "expectancyPct": null } } } }, "conviction_calibration": [ { "conviction": 4, "scored": 2, "correct": 2, "accuracyPct": 100 }, { "conviction": 5, "scored": 8, "correct": 5, "accuracyPct": 62.5 }, { "conviction": 6, "scored": 10, "correct": 5, "accuracyPct": 50 }, { "conviction": 7, "scored": 10, "correct": 6, "accuracyPct": 60 }, { "conviction": 8, "scored": 1, "correct": 0, "accuracyPct": 0 } ], "weeks": [ { "week_of": "2026-08-17", "scorecard_article": null, "notes": "First rows of the week carry the two calls from the August 17 Ultragenyx (RARE) preview of the August 23 2026 PDUFA date on DTX401, gene therapy for glycogen storage disease type Ia: a pass on the shares and a pass on options, both struck against the August 14 2026 close because it was written before Monday's open. Both are deliberately passes rather than opposed positions, reflecting a binary catalyst where the trial data is unusually clean but a manufacturing-facility question at the same site cost the company a different drug's approval thirteen months earlier. Eleven further rows were added the same day from six earnings previews covering the names reporting August 18-20 2026 that the site had not yet written up: Keysight (KEYS), Mercury Systems (MRCY) and La-Z-Boy (LZB) on the 18th, Coty (COTY) and BILL on the 19th, and Advance Auto Parts (AAP) on the 20th. All are struck against the August 14 2026 close because they were written before Monday's open, and no live option chain could be sourced for any of them, so every options row is quoted against the earnings-watcher.com implied move rather than a premium. Two further rows were added the same morning for argenx (ARGX): a pass on chasing the premarket pop after the ALKIVIA Phase 3 myositis trial hit its primary endpoint, and a pass on options because no live chain could be sourced against an already-released catalyst with no filing timeline to anchor a follow-up structure. Entry is the premarket quote around $945-948 as of roughly 8:20am ET August 17 2026, not a settled close, because the piece was written before the regular session opened. Three further rows were added the same afternoon from the RUM Group decision piece (is Rumble a buy: AI play, short squeeze, weekly options): a pass on chasing the shares at $8.37 intraday after a 34.8% four-session run since the August 10 Q2 report, a pending conditional long on a close back under $7.00, and a pass on August 21 weekly calls. All three are struck against the $8.37 intraday snapshot around 1:03pm ET August 17 2026 per stockanalysis.com, cross-checked at $8.36 on Google Finance a minute later, because the piece was written mid-session. No live RUM option chain could be sourced (Yahoo and Barchart both unavailable this session), so the weekly implied move is derived arithmetic from two published implied volatility readings (Fintel 30-day IV 76.1, late-July flow marked 80.3%), roughly a 10% at-the-money weekly straddle, and is labeled derived rather than quoted. One further row was added the same afternoon for EyePoint (EYPT): a pass on any options structure after DURAVYU missed the primary endpoint of the LUGANO Phase 3 wet AMD trial in the full 211-patient dataset, sending shares down 68.81% intraday. No live EYPT option chain could be sourced for a session with a 69% single-day move on more than 50x average volume, and the next catalyst (LUCIA, the second pivotal trial) doesn't top out until Q4 2026, too far out to anchor a dated structure today. Entry is the $4.60 intraday quote at 2:11pm ET August 17 2026 per stockanalysis.com, against a $14.75 Friday August 14 close, written mid-session with the regular session still open. On August 18, five rows were scored against the day's reported earnings: both Keysight (KEYS) rows against a beat-and-raise fiscal Q3 with orders holding above $2bn a second straight quarter (realised move ~2% after-hours, well inside the 9.4% implied), both Mercury Systems (MRCY) rows against a fiscal Q4 that returned to positive free cash flow but still fell on margin compression (realised ~10-12% after-hours, inside the 16% implied), and both La-Z-Boy (LZB) rows against a fiscal Q1 miss of the company's own guide with a below-consensus Q2 outlook (realised ~16-17% after-hours, beyond the 10.3% implied). A new row was added for Home Depot (HD): the conditional long from the August 4 preview triggered when Q2 comps accelerated to 1.7% from 0.6% with guidance reaffirmed, entered at the August 18 morning session read of $340.26 given unreconciled closing-price feeds. Four further rows were added August 19 2026 from two earnings previews published that day: PDD Holdings (reports August 24) and Broadcom (reports September 2). All four are passes, struck against the August 18 2026 close (PDD $87.27, AVGO $380.00, both per stockanalysis.com) because no live option chain could be sourced for either name in session; the PDD rows are quoted against its 7.6% 8-quarter historical average earnings-day move, the AVGO straddle row against a 6-9% historical range, and the AVGO October calls row carries no implied move at all since it is a directional idea dated past earnings with no premium sourced for the proposed strike. Two further rows were added August 19 2026 for Weave Communications (WEAV) after Francisco Partners agreed to buy it for $7.40/share cash: a merger-arb long in the common stock at the $7.28 August 18 close, and a pass on options given no live chain could be sourced on a thinly traded takeout name. Both are struck against the August 18 2026 close per stockanalysis.com. On August 19 the COTY and BILL rows were marked at the regular-session close ahead of their after-close prints rather than graded, since both reaction sessions are August 20. Coty closed $3.03, up 10.58%, then reported fiscal Q4 adjusted EPS of -$0.02 on $1,269.2m of revenue, cut financial net debt to $2,912.1m and declined to guide fiscal 2027 beyond the first quarter, calling it a transition year. BILL closed $47.71, down 2.97%, then beat its own guide on revenue, operating income and EPS and guided FY27 non-GAAP operating income up 30-39% on revenue up 9-12%. Two further rows were added the evening of August 19 2026 from the Moderna options piece (what $1,000 of Tuesday-close $80 weekly calls became after the INTerpath-001 win): a pass on buying August 21 weekly calls at the Thursday August 20 open, and a long in the common stock held into the full INTerpath-001 data presentation. Both are struck against the August 19 2026 close of $174.38 per stockanalysis.com and CNBC, with the $183.97 extended-hours broker print noted as a snapshot only. No forward implied move could be sourced for Thursday strikes; the weekly chain at Wednesday close had collapsed to about a dollar over parity (the $80C asked $95.45 against $94.38 of intrinsic value). One further row was added August 20 2026 to the Nvidia (NVDA) August 26 earnings preview, which was updated in place rather than spun into a new page: a pass on buying at-the-money August 28 weekly calls into the print, struck against the August 20 2026 close of $216.85 per stockanalysis.com. This is the first NVDA row in the ledger; the three plays logged in that preview on August 7 predate the ledger and conviction rules and were deliberately not backfilled. The chain was sourced for the first time this session at a ±5.8% implied move, against a 4.8% average realised move over the last 12 quarters and realised coming in under implied in 6 of the last 8 reports, which is the basis for the pass. Two further rows were added August 21 2026 from the Tenon Medical (TNON) piece on its two-session round trip: a pass on options because no live chain has ever been listed on this name, and a pass on chasing either direction in the common stock. Both are struck against the August 20 2026 close of $7.07 per stockanalysis.com and Google Finance, down 38.04% from Wednesday's $11.41 close, which was itself up 109.4% from Tuesday's $5.45 close on a USPTO patent notice of allowance. The stock had completed a 1-for-35 reverse split effective August 10 2026 to regain Nasdaq's $1.00 minimum bid price ahead of an August 24 2026 compliance deadline.", "calls": [ { "id": "rare-long-shares-pass-2026-08-17", "ticker": "RARE", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on RARE common stock into the August 23 2026 PDUFA date", "thesis": "DTX401's Phase 3 GlucoGene data cleared p<0.0001 on the primary endpoint, but DTX401 is manufactured at the same Bedford, MA facility whose inspection findings contributed to the July 2025 complete response letter on Ultragenyx's other gene therapy, UX111, so the regulatory outcome is not reducible to the trial data alone.", "conviction": 5, "catalyst": "FDA PDUFA target action date for DTX401 (pariglasgene brecaparvovec) in glycogen storage disease type Ia, August 23 2026", "invalidation": "A pre-decision FDA statement or leak clarifying the Bedford facility's inspection status one way or the other, which would resolve the actual open question well before the 23rd.", "logged": "2026-08-17", "article": "ultragenyx-rare-dtx401-fda-decision-august-23-preview", "entry": { "spot": 26.49, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Spot is the Aug 14 2026 close per stockanalysis.com, up 0.42% from a $26.38 prior close. Written before Monday August 17's open, so no same-day print exists yet." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.01, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "rare-options-pass-2026-08-17", "ticker": "RARE", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on any options structure into the August 23 2026 PDUFA date", "thesis": "No live, verifiable RARE option chain could be sourced this session, and pricing a binary regulatory event without a checkable premium is worse than not pricing it at all.", "conviction": 5, "catalyst": "FDA PDUFA target action date for DTX401 (pariglasgene brecaparvovec) in glycogen storage disease type Ia, August 23 2026", "invalidation": "A sourced, verifiable RARE option chain becoming available before August 23, which would make a priced structure possible.", "logged": "2026-08-17", "article": "ultragenyx-rare-dtx401-fda-decision-august-23-preview", "entry": { "spot": 26.49, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Same Aug 14 2026 close as the stock-direction row logged alongside it. No live options chain could be sourced." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.01, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "keys-straddle-pass-2026-08-17", "ticker": "KEYS", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on a long straddle at the ~$357.50 strike, Aug 21 weekly expiry, into the August 18 fiscal Q3 print", "thesis": "Keysight guided fiscal Q3 revenue to $1.73-1.75bn, only about 1.2% above the $1.72bn it just reported, and a six-cent EPS range, so the reported quarter is close to known and realised move stays inside the 9.4% implied.", "conviction": 6, "catalyst": "Keysight fiscal Q3 2026 results, after the close August 18 2026, call 4:30pm ET", "invalidation": "Orders printing below roughly $1.9bn, which would make the reaction a directional repricing of the AI-capex multiple rather than a quarter that clears its own low bar.", "logged": "2026-08-17", "article": "keysight-keys-fq3-2026-earnings-preview-august-18", "entry": { "spot": 357.82, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 9.4, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Implied move and strike come from this site's own earnings-calendar dataset (src/data/earnings-calendar), dated August 15 2026, cross-checked against earnings-watcher.com. No live quote was sourced for the structure itself, so it is priced off the implied move rather than a filled premium. Spot is the August 14 2026 close." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.01, "spy_exit": 768.64 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": 2, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": "2026-08-18", "exit_session": "afterhours", "exit_reason": "earnings released as scheduled", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "keysight-keys-fq3-2026-earnings-preview-august-18", "note": "Realised after-hours move ~2%, well inside the 9.4% implied; a long straddle would have decayed." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": -0.9497300292522048, "alpha_pct": 2.949730029252205 } }, { "id": "keys-short-premium-pass-2026-08-17", "ticker": "KEYS", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on selling naked premium into the August 18 fiscal Q3 print", "thesis": "A 9.4% implied move is wide for a $61bn test-and-measurement name, but KEYS sits 4.5% off a 52-week high with AI capex as its swing factor, and July 2026 showed realised moves running past implied repeatedly in AI-levered names.", "conviction": 7, "catalyst": "Keysight fiscal Q3 2026 results, after the close August 18 2026, call 4:30pm ET", "invalidation": "A print that resolves inside the implied move, which would score this pass as the cost of caution rather than a saved loss.", "logged": "2026-08-17", "article": "keysight-keys-fq3-2026-earnings-preview-august-18", "entry": { "spot": 357.82, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 9.4, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Implied move and strike come from this site's own earnings-calendar dataset (src/data/earnings-calendar), dated August 15 2026, cross-checked against earnings-watcher.com. No live quote was sourced for the structure itself, so it is priced off the implied move rather than a filled premium. Spot is the August 14 2026 close." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.01, "spy_exit": 768.64 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": 2, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": "2026-08-18", "exit_session": "afterhours", "exit_reason": "earnings released as scheduled", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "keysight-keys-fq3-2026-earnings-preview-august-18", "note": "Realised move ~2% stayed inside implied, so a short-premium structure would have kept its credit; per the invalidation set in advance, this pass scores as the cost of caution." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": -0.9497300292522048, "alpha_pct": 2.949730029252205 } }, { "id": "coty-long-straddle-2026-08-17", "ticker": "COTY", "category": "volatility", "stance": "long", "structure": "Long straddle at the $3.00 strike, Aug 21 weekly expiry, into the August 19 fiscal Q4 print", "thesis": "Coty's Q4 EPS is pre-announced to within two cents and consensus sits dead centre of the guide, so the reaction comes entirely from the FY27 outlook landing on a capital structure where $2.96bn of net debt is 54% of enterprise value, and a levered stub realises more than the 16.6% implied.", "conviction": 6, "catalyst": "Coty fiscal Q4 and full-year 2026 results, after the close August 19 2026", "invalidation": "A Q4 adjusted EBITDA print inside the guided $85-95m alongside an FY27 outlook that holds leverage near 3.2x after the Gucci proceeds, which would let the stock settle inside the implied move.", "logged": "2026-08-17", "article": "coty-q4-fy2026-earnings-preview-august-19", "entry": { "spot": 2.85, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 16.6, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "No live option chain could be sourced this session, so the structure is quoted against the options-implied move reported by earnings-watcher.com rather than against a premium. Spot is the August 14 2026 close." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.01, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": { "value": 3.03, "date": "2026-08-19", "label": "August 19 regular close $3.03, up 10.58% on the day the company named a new CFO, which carried the stock through the $3.00 strike before the print. Coty then reported the -$0.02 adjusted EPS its guide implied, $1,269.2m of revenue with LFL down 1%, and guided only fiscal Q1; extended-hours quote $2.83 at 4:35pm ET. Scored on the August 20 close." }, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": 6.315789473684208, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "bill-call-spread-2026-08-17", "ticker": "BILL", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "Long $55/$65 call spread, January 2027 expiry, held through the August 19 fiscal Q4 print and the FY27 guide", "thesis": "BILL's 30% workforce reduction lifts the operating margin durably while the $1bn authorization, about 20% of the market cap, shortens the downside tail, and 15.8x forward earnings does not pay for either.", "conviction": 5, "catalyst": "BILL fiscal Q4 and full-year 2026 results and first FY2027 guidance, after the close August 19 2026", "invalidation": "Core revenue growth guided below 13% for FY27, which would indicate the headcount reduction cut into go-to-market rather than into overhead.", "logged": "2026-08-17", "article": "bill-com-bill-q4-fy2026-earnings-preview-august-19", "entry": { "spot": 49.78, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 12.8, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "No live option chain could be sourced this session, so the structure is quoted against the options-implied move reported by earnings-watcher.com rather than against a premium. Spot is the August 14 2026 close." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.01, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": { "value": 47.71, "date": "2026-08-19", "label": "August 19 regular close $47.71, down 2.97% ahead of the after-close print. BILL beat its own fiscal Q4 guide on every line ($0.84 non-GAAP EPS against $0.69-0.72, core revenue up 16%) and guided FY27 revenue up 9-12% with non-GAAP operating income up 30-39%. Quoted near $48.35 at 4:28pm ET in extended hours. Scored on the August 20 close." }, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": -4.1582965046203295, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "bill-straddle-pass-2026-08-17", "ticker": "BILL", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on a long straddle at the $50 strike, Aug 21 weekly expiry, into the August 19 fiscal Q4 print", "thesis": "The June quarter is guided to a five-cent EPS range that BILL has cleared consistently, so the print itself carries little information and the realised move stays inside the 12.8% implied.", "conviction": 6, "catalyst": "BILL fiscal Q4 and full-year 2026 results, after the close August 19 2026", "invalidation": "An FY27 guide far enough outside consensus to move the stock more than 12.8%, which a first guide after a 30% headcount cut could plausibly do.", "logged": "2026-08-17", "article": "bill-com-bill-q4-fy2026-earnings-preview-august-19", "entry": { "spot": 49.78, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 12.8, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "No live option chain could be sourced this session, so the structure is quoted against the options-implied move reported by earnings-watcher.com rather than against a premium. Spot is the August 14 2026 close." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.01, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": { "value": 47.71, "date": "2026-08-19", "label": "August 19 regular close $47.71, down 2.97% ahead of the after-close print. BILL beat its own fiscal Q4 guide on every line ($0.84 non-GAAP EPS against $0.69-0.72, core revenue up 16%) and guided FY27 revenue up 9-12% with non-GAAP operating income up 30-39%. Quoted near $48.35 at 4:28pm ET in extended hours. Scored on the August 20 close." }, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": -4.1582965046203295, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "aap-call-spread-2026-08-17", "ticker": "AAP", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "Long $60/$70 call spread, October 16 2026 expiry, into the August 20 Q2 print", "thesis": "Advance Auto comped 3.5% in a 16-week Q1 and reaffirmed a full-year guide of 1.0-2.0%, which weight-adjusted implies -0.1% to +1.3% across the remaining 36 weeks, so a Q2 comp near 2% forces the full-year range up.", "conviction": 6, "catalyst": "Advance Auto Parts Q2 2026 results, before the open August 20 2026", "invalidation": "Q2 comparable store sales below 1%, or tariff commentary that puts the 3.80-4.50% adjusted operating margin guide in play.", "logged": "2026-08-17", "article": "advance-auto-parts-aap-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-20", "entry": { "spot": 56.55, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 14.3, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Implied move and strike come from this site's own earnings-calendar dataset (src/data/earnings-calendar), dated August 15 2026, cross-checked against earnings-watcher.com. No live quote was sourced for the structure itself, so it is priced off the implied move rather than a filled premium. Spot is the August 14 2026 close." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.01, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": { "value": 42.39, "date": "2026-08-20", "label": "AAP closed $42.39, down 25.0% from the $56.55 entry. The $60/$70 call spread needs a 41%+ rally by the Oct 16 expiry; tracking near worthless." }, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": -25.039787798408486, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "aap-short-premium-pass-2026-08-17", "ticker": "AAP", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on selling naked premium into the August 20 Q2 print", "thesis": "A 14.3% implied move looks wide against a fifteen-week earnings range, but 60.4m shares outstanding is a small float and small floats gap through implied on a guide revision.", "conviction": 6, "catalyst": "Advance Auto Parts Q2 2026 results, before the open August 20 2026", "invalidation": "A print that resolves inside the implied move, which would score this pass as the cost of caution.", "logged": "2026-08-17", "article": "advance-auto-parts-aap-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-20", "entry": { "spot": 56.55, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 14.3, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Implied move and strike come from this site's own earnings-calendar dataset (src/data/earnings-calendar), dated August 15 2026, cross-checked against earnings-watcher.com. No live quote was sourced for the structure itself, so it is priced off the implied move rather than a filled premium. Spot is the August 14 2026 close." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.01, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": { "value": 42.39, "date": "2026-08-20", "label": "AAP closed $42.39, down 25.0% from the $56.55 entry, nearly double the +/-14.3% implied move. The print did not resolve inside the implied move, so this pass tracks as a win." }, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": -25.039787798408486, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "mrcy-long-shares-pass-2026-08-17", "ticker": "MRCY", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on MRCY common stock into the August 18 fiscal Q4 print", "thesis": "Mercury trades at about 6.9x trailing sales and 82x forward earnings with a trailing GAAP loss, above the $103.75 mean target of the nine analysts who all rate it Buy, and last quarter turned record bookings into minus $1.8m of free cash flow.", "conviction": 6, "catalyst": "Mercury Systems fiscal Q4 and full-year 2026 results, after the close August 18 2026, call 5:00pm ET", "invalidation": "Positive free cash flow in the June quarter with backlog held at or above $1.6bn, which would retire the cash-conversion objection and justify the multiple.", "logged": "2026-08-17", "article": "mercury-systems-mrcy-q4-fy2026-earnings-preview-august-18", "entry": { "spot": 111.12, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 16, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "No live option chain could be sourced this session, so the structure is quoted against the options-implied move reported by earnings-watcher.com rather than against a premium. Spot is the August 14 2026 close." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.01, "spy_exit": 768.64 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": -10.5, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": "2026-08-18", "exit_session": "afterhours", "exit_reason": "earnings released as scheduled", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "mercury-systems-mrcy-q4-fy2026-earnings-preview-august-18", "note": "Shares fell roughly 10-12% after hours despite free cash flow returning to positive (~$29m) and backlog holding above $1.6bn (the invalidation condition), because operating margin compressed to ~5% from 8.6%; the pass on owning the stock into the print still wins even though the specific cash-flow bear case was resolved positively." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": -0.9497300292522048, "alpha_pct": -9.550269970747795 } }, { "id": "mrcy-straddle-pass-2026-08-17", "ticker": "MRCY", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on a long straddle at the $110 strike, Aug 21 weekly expiry, into the August 18 fiscal Q4 print", "thesis": "Mercury issues no formal guidance, so the 16% implied move is a fair price for an unanchored event rather than an expensive one, and there is no edge on either side of it.", "conviction": 5, "catalyst": "Mercury Systems fiscal Q4 and full-year 2026 results, after the close August 18 2026, call 5:00pm ET", "invalidation": "A realised move well outside 16% in either direction, which would show the unanchored outlook was underpriced rather than fairly priced.", "logged": "2026-08-17", "article": "mercury-systems-mrcy-q4-fy2026-earnings-preview-august-18", "entry": { "spot": 111.12, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 16, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "No live option chain could be sourced this session, so the structure is quoted against the options-implied move reported by earnings-watcher.com rather than against a premium. Spot is the August 14 2026 close." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.01, "spy_exit": 768.64 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": -10.5, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": "2026-08-18", "exit_session": "afterhours", "exit_reason": "earnings released as scheduled", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "mercury-systems-mrcy-q4-fy2026-earnings-preview-august-18", "note": "Realised move ~10-12% stayed inside the 16% implied move." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": -0.9497300292522048, "alpha_pct": -9.550269970747795 } }, { "id": "lzb-short-premium-pass-2026-08-17", "ticker": "LZB", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on short premium, including a defined-risk iron condor with roughly $38/$46 wings, Aug 21 weekly expiry, into the August 18 fiscal Q1 print", "thesis": "The setup invites selling a 10.3% implied move on a quarter pre-guided on both sales and margin, but La-Z-Boy's previous print realised about 25%, so recent realised has beaten implied by a wide margin in this specific name.", "conviction": 7, "catalyst": "La-Z-Boy fiscal Q1 2027 results, after the close August 18 2026, call 8:30am ET August 19", "invalidation": "A realised move inside 10.3%, which would score this pass as premium declined rather than a loss avoided.", "logged": "2026-08-17", "article": "la-z-boy-lzb-q1-fy2027-earnings-preview-august-18", "entry": { "spot": 41.85, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 10.3, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "No live option chain could be sourced this session, so the structure is quoted against the options-implied move reported by earnings-watcher.com rather than against a premium. Spot is the August 14 2026 close." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.01, "spy_exit": 768.64 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": -16.5, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": "2026-08-18", "exit_session": "afterhours", "exit_reason": "earnings released as scheduled", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "la-z-boy-lzb-q1-fy2027-earnings-preview-august-18", "note": "Realised move ~16-17% after hours exceeded the 10.3% implied and would have breached the $38/$46 wings; the pass avoided that loss." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": -0.9497300292522048, "alpha_pct": -15.550269970747795 } }, { "id": "lzb-straddle-pass-2026-08-17", "ticker": "LZB", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on a long straddle at the $42 strike, Aug 21 weekly expiry, into the August 18 fiscal Q1 print", "thesis": "La-Z-Boy guided sales to $490-510m and adjusted operating margin to 4.0-5.5% against a year-ago quarter that did $492m at 4.8%, so the guided trough quarter is more likely to produce a small move than a 10.3% one.", "conviction": 5, "catalyst": "La-Z-Boy fiscal Q1 2027 results, after the close August 18 2026, call 8:30am ET August 19", "invalidation": "An IEEPA tariff refund or a Retail written-sales figure far from the +11% trend, either of which could carry the stock past the implied move.", "logged": "2026-08-17", "article": "la-z-boy-lzb-q1-fy2027-earnings-preview-august-18", "entry": { "spot": 41.85, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 10.3, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "No live option chain could be sourced this session, so the structure is quoted against the options-implied move reported by earnings-watcher.com rather than against a premium. Spot is the August 14 2026 close." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.01, "spy_exit": 768.64 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": -16.5, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": "2026-08-18", "exit_session": "afterhours", "exit_reason": "earnings released as scheduled", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "la-z-boy-lzb-q1-fy2027-earnings-preview-august-18", "note": "Realised move ~16-17% exceeded the 10.3% implied; a long straddle would have profited, so the pass forwent a winning trade." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": -0.9497300292522048, "alpha_pct": -15.550269970747795 } }, { "id": "argx-long-shares-pass-2026-08-17", "ticker": "ARGX", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on buying ARGX common stock into the premarket pop", "thesis": "The ALKIVIA Phase 3 myositis trial met its primary endpoint and the IMNM subgroup result is the first Phase 3 win in a disease with no approved therapy, a real positive for the FcRn franchise, but an 11% premarket move on thin volume is a worse entry than whatever price the stock settles at once the DM subgroup miss and the missing BLA filing timeline are priced in during the regular session.", "conviction": 5, "catalyst": "ALKIVIA Phase 3 topline results in autoimmune myositis, announced before the open August 17 2026", "invalidation": "The stock holding its premarket gain or extending it through the regular session on real volume, which would show the market is not discounting the DM subgroup's p=0.1093 miss or the absent filing timeline.", "logged": "2026-08-17", "article": "why-is-argenx-argx-stock-up-today-myositis-trial-results", "entry": { "spot": 946.5, "session": "premarket", "date": "2026-08-17", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Midpoint of the $945-948 premarket range quoted around 8:20am ET August 17 2026 against Friday August 14's $851.29 close, per Google Finance and stockanalysis.com. Premarket volume on this name was thin (low thousands of shares), so this is a snapshot, not a close." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.01, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "argx-options-pass-2026-08-17", "ticker": "ARGX", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on any directional options structure on the premarket move", "thesis": "No live, verifiable ARGX option chain could be sourced this premarket session, and the myositis catalyst has already been released with no follow-up filing date to anchor a dated structure, so pricing volatility here would be paying for an event that already happened.", "conviction": 4, "catalyst": "ALKIVIA Phase 3 topline results in autoimmune myositis, announced before the open August 17 2026", "invalidation": "A sourced, verifiable ARGX option chain becoming available alongside a confirmed BLA filing or medical-meeting data date, which would make a dated structure possible.", "logged": "2026-08-17", "article": "why-is-argenx-argx-stock-up-today-myositis-trial-results", "entry": { "spot": 946.5, "session": "premarket", "date": "2026-08-17", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Same premarket read as the stock-direction row logged alongside it. No live options chain could be sourced." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.01, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "rum-chase-shares-pass-2026-08-17", "ticker": "RUM", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on buying RUM common stock at market after the four-session post-earnings run", "thesis": "The 34.8% move from the August 10 close to $8.37 intraday is short covering into a 133.9m-share float rather than new information, so the stock closes below $8.37 within four weeks as the covering exhausts.", "conviction": 6, "catalyst": "No dated catalyst; short covering against the 26.9m-share short position at the latest published settlement", "invalidation": "A new hard item in the filing record (a contract win, a guidance raise, index inclusion) that gives the move a fundamental leg rather than a positioning one.", "logged": "2026-08-17", "article": "is-rumble-rum-a-buy-ai-play-short-squeeze", "entry": { "spot": 8.37, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-17", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Intraday snapshot around 1:03pm ET August 17 2026 per stockanalysis.com, cross-checked at $8.36 on Google Finance a minute later, up 12.2% on the day from Friday August 14's $7.46 close. Written mid-session, so no same-day close exists yet." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.01, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "rum-long-shares-retrace-pending-2026-08-17", "ticker": "RUM", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "Conditional long in RUM common stock, triggered by a regular-session close under $7.00, held into the Q3 2026 report", "thesis": "The $87-93m Q3 guide made Quake AI underwritable, and under $7.00 the fully diluted capitalization (502.9m shares per the June 22 2026 Schedule 13D/A) drops below 10x the annualized guide midpoint, a price at which the November print is worth owning.", "conviction": 6, "catalyst": "Q3 2026 results, expected around November 2026, the first quarter with Northern Data consolidated throughout", "invalidation": "A Q3 guide cut, a large primary equity offering, or Tether converting its EUR 317.5m facility at the $7.88 floor, any of which changes the per-share arithmetic the trigger price rests on.", "logged": "2026-08-17", "article": "is-rumble-rum-a-buy-ai-play-short-squeeze", "entry": { "spot": 8.37, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-17", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Reference spot only, not a struck entry: the trigger is a regular-session close under $7.00, which has not fired. Snapshot around 1:03pm ET August 17 2026 per stockanalysis.com, cross-checked on Google Finance." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.01, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "pending", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "rum-weekly-calls-pass-2026-08-17", "ticker": "RUM", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on long August 21 weekly calls near the $8.50 strike", "thesis": "With implied volatility readings of 76-80% pricing roughly a 10% at-the-money weekly range and no dated catalyst before the August 21 expiry, a weekly call bought at $8.37 needs a further squeeze leg inside four sessions and expires worthless without one.", "conviction": 7, "catalyst": "None inside the window; the next hard dates (short interest settlement publication, Q3 results) fall outside it", "invalidation": "A realised move beyond roughly 10% by the August 21 close, which would score the declined weekly as a missed win.", "logged": "2026-08-17", "article": "is-rumble-rum-a-buy-ai-play-short-squeeze", "entry": { "spot": 8.37, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-17", "implied_move_pct": 10, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "No live RUM option chain could be sourced this session (Yahoo and Barchart both unavailable), so the 10% weekly move is derived arithmetic from two published implied volatility readings (Fintel 30-day IV 76.1; late-July flow marked at 80.3% implied), not a quoted premium. Spot is the 1:03pm ET August 17 2026 intraday snapshot." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.01, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "eypt-options-pass-2026-08-17", "ticker": "EYPT", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on any directional options structure after the LUGANO trial miss", "thesis": "DURAVYU missed the LUGANO primary endpoint in the full 211-patient dataset, and while a post-hoc analysis excluding 9 patients found non-inferiority, the market's 68.81% single-day drop is treating the full-dataset miss as the real answer pending confirmation from the second pivotal trial, LUCIA, in Q4 2026.", "conviction": 5, "catalyst": "LUGANO Phase 3 topline results for DURAVYU in wet AMD, announced August 17 2026", "invalidation": "A sourced, verifiable EYPT option chain becoming available with a confirmed LUCIA data date close enough to anchor a dated structure.", "logged": "2026-08-17", "article": "why-is-eyepoint-eypt-stock-down-today-duravyu-trial-miss", "entry": { "spot": 4.6, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-17", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Intraday quote at 2:11pm ET August 17 2026 per stockanalysis.com, down 68.81% from Friday August 14's $14.75 close on more than 50x average volume. No live options chain could be sourced. Written mid-session, so no same-day close exists yet." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.01, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "xos-options-pass-2026-08-18", "ticker": "XOS", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on any directional options structure after the Air Force contract news", "thesis": "Xos shares more than doubled on an undisclosed-value prototype Air Force contract, and the size of the reaction is a function of a 14.22 million share float trading 98.1 million shares, not a priced catalyst, so the move is more likely to give back a large piece of itself once the momentum flow rotates than to hold.", "conviction": 4, "catalyst": "Prototype Other Transaction Agreement with the U.S. Air Force Global Strike Command Rapid Capabilities Division, announced via press release at 4:30pm ET August 17 2026", "invalidation": "A sourced, verifiable XOS option chain becoming available, or a follow-on production contract with a disclosed dollar value that would give a real number to price against.", "logged": "2026-08-18", "article": "why-is-xos-stock-up-today-air-force-contract", "entry": { "spot": 4.31, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-18", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Intraday quote at 2:09pm ET August 18 2026 per stockanalysis.com, up 106.22% from Monday August 17's $2.09 close on 98.1 million shares versus 14.22 million shares outstanding. No live options chain could be sourced. Written mid-session, so no same-day close exists yet." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 768.14, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "hd-conditional-long-triggered-2026-08-18", "ticker": "HD", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "Conditional long HD common stock, triggered off the August 18 2026 fiscal Q2 print, entered the Tuesday morning session", "thesis": "The trigger set in the preview fired: Q2 comparable sales accelerated meaningfully to 1.7% from Q1's 0.6%, adjusted EPS of $4.92 beat the $4.73 consensus, and full-year guidance was reaffirmed rather than cut.", "conviction": 6, "catalyst": "Home Depot fiscal Q2 2026 results, before the open August 18 2026", "invalidation": "A close meaningfully below the entry level, which would show the market did not credit the comp acceleration the way this call expected.", "logged": "2026-08-18", "article": "home-depot-hd-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-18", "entry": { "spot": 340.26, "session": "open", "date": "2026-08-18", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "No implied move was sourced for HD pre-print, so this row was logged only once the conditional triggered. Entry is the Tuesday morning read (~0.7% above Monday's close); closing-price feeds disagreed with each other by several dollars on the day, so the entry is marked from the morning session rather than an unreconciled close." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 768.64, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "pdd-holdings-straddle-pass-2026-08-19", "ticker": "PDD", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on a PDD Aug 28 weekly straddle into the August 24 2026 Q2 2026 earnings print", "thesis": "PDD's roughly 7.6% average earnings-day move over its last eight reports is priced against a grinding margin-compression story (China price war, Temu tariff costs), not a binary catalyst, so the straddle is unlikely to pay for its own premium.", "conviction": 4, "catalyst": "PDD Holdings Q2 2026 earnings, August 24 2026 before the US open", "invalidation": "A sourced live option chain pricing the straddle meaningfully below the 7.6% historical average move would flip this toward a buy.", "logged": "2026-08-19", "article": "pdd-holdings-pdd-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-24", "entry": { "spot": 87.27, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-18", "implied_move_pct": 7.6, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Spot per stockanalysis.com August 18 2026 close. No live PDD option chain sourced in session; 7.6% is the 8-quarter historical average earnings-day move per optionslam.com, not a live straddle quote." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 767.45, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "pdd-holdings-iron-condor-pass-2026-08-19", "ticker": "PDD", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on an $80P/$95C short iron condor around PDD's August 24 2026 Q2 2026 earnings print", "thesis": "Selling premium outside PDD's historical earnings-day move fits a grinding, two-sided compression story better than buying a straddle, but no live chain confirms the $80/$95 short strikes actually price a reasonable credit.", "conviction": 5, "catalyst": "PDD Holdings Q2 2026 earnings, August 24 2026 before the US open", "invalidation": "A sourced option chain pricing the $80/$95 short strikes for a credit consistent with the historical move would convert this from a pass to a live position.", "logged": "2026-08-19", "article": "pdd-holdings-pdd-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-24", "entry": { "spot": 87.27, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-18", "implied_move_pct": 7.6, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Spot per stockanalysis.com August 18 2026 close. No live PDD option chain sourced; 7.6% is the 8-quarter historical average earnings-day move per optionslam.com, not a live quote on the proposed strikes." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 767.45, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "broadcom-avgo-straddle-pass-2026-08-19", "ticker": "AVGO", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on an AVGO Sep 4 weekly straddle into the September 2 2026 fiscal Q3 2026 earnings print", "thesis": "Broadcom's Q3 guide already reconciles cleanly against its own prior-quarter numbers, and the stock is already down 23% from its high on an unrelated AI-financing-risk story, so paying a full volatility premium for a coin-flip direction is a weak bet.", "conviction": 4, "catalyst": "Broadcom fiscal Q3 2026 earnings, September 2 2026 after the close", "invalidation": "A sourced option chain pricing the straddle meaningfully below the historical 6-9% earnings-day range would flip this toward a buy.", "logged": "2026-08-19", "article": "broadcom-avgo-q3-fy2026-earnings-preview-september-2", "entry": { "spot": 380, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-18", "implied_move_pct": 6, "implied_move_high_pct": 9, "note": "Spot per stockanalysis.com August 18 2026 close. No live AVGO option chain sourced; 6-9% is the historical earnings-day move range from aggregator data (marketchameleon.com, tipranks.com), not a live straddle quote." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 767.45, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "broadcom-avgo-oct-calls-pass-2026-08-19", "ticker": "AVGO", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass (bullish lean) on AVGO $400C Oct 16 2026 calls, dated past the September 2 2026 earnings print", "thesis": "A second consecutive guided AI semiconductor revenue jump to $16 billion (over 200% year over year) eventually gets bought instead of sold once the AI-financing-risk overhang around the AI XPV platform either resolves or is fully priced in.", "conviction": 6, "catalyst": "Broadcom fiscal Q3 2026 earnings, September 2 2026, plus the ongoing AI XPV financing-risk narrative", "invalidation": "Fiscal Q4 AI semiconductor guidance comes in below the trajectory implied by the $16 billion Q3 guide, or the AI XPV financing story escalates into an actual credit event; either breaks the bullish-continuation thesis.", "logged": "2026-08-19", "article": "broadcom-avgo-q3-fy2026-earnings-preview-september-2", "entry": { "spot": 380, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-18", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Spot per stockanalysis.com August 18 2026 close. No live AVGO option chain sourced, so no premium is logged for the proposed $400C Oct 16 strike; this is a considered structure, not an entered position." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 767.45, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "weav-merger-arb-long-2026-08-19", "ticker": "WEAV", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "Long common stock, merger-arb spread, held to deal close", "thesis": "The deal closes on the agreed terms by the Q4 2026 target, or in the worst case by the February 18 2027 outside date, and the stock converges to the $7.40 deal price.", "conviction": 6, "catalyst": "Francisco Partners' $7.40/share all-cash acquisition of Weave Communications, announced August 18 2026; expected close Q4 2026, subject to HSR antitrust clearance and Weave stockholder approval; outside date February 18 2027, extendable to May 18 2027", "invalidation": "A material adverse change finding, an HSR second request that drags past the outside date, or Francisco Partners walking away despite its fully committed equity financing.", "logged": "2026-08-19", "article": "why-is-weave-communications-weav-stock-up-francisco-partners-buyout", "entry": { "spot": 7.28, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-18", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Spot is the August 18 2026 close per stockanalysis.com, up 31.65% from Monday August 17's $5.53 close, against a $7.40 deal price (a 34% premium to the Aug 17 close per the company's merger announcement and SEC Form 8-K). Wednesday August 19 trading held in the same $7.28-7.30 range." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 767.45, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "weav-options-pass-2026-08-19", "ticker": "WEAV", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on any WEAV options structure", "thesis": "No live, verifiable WEAV option chain could be sourced this session on a thinly traded merger-arb name, and once a cash price is fixed the stock's implied volatility collapses toward a pin at the deal price, leaving no options thesis besides a bet on a competing bidder the market has given no sign of.", "conviction": 4, "catalyst": "Francisco Partners' $7.40/share all-cash acquisition of Weave Communications, announced August 18 2026", "invalidation": "A sourced, verifiable WEAV option chain showing a real premium, or a second bidder emerging, either of which would make a dated structure worth pricing.", "logged": "2026-08-19", "article": "why-is-weave-communications-weav-stock-up-francisco-partners-buyout", "entry": { "spot": 7.28, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-18", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Same August 18 2026 close as the stock-direction row logged alongside it. No live options chain could be sourced." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 767.45, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "mrna-weekly-calls-open-pass-2026-08-19", "ticker": "MRNA", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on buying any August 21 weekly MRNA calls at the Thursday August 20 open", "thesis": "After a 176.97% session with the Phase 3 effect size unpublished and no dated catalyst before Friday expiry, weekly calls bought at Thursday open are a 48-hour bet that an extended-hours print extends further, and the chain has already collapsed to about a dollar of time value over parity.", "conviction": 7, "catalyst": "INTerpath-001 Phase 3 topline win announced August 19 2026; the next dated event, the full data presentation at a medical meeting, has no announced date", "invalidation": "MRNA closing Friday August 21 meaningfully above the $183.97 extended-hours print, which would have paid calls bought at Thursday open.", "logged": "2026-08-19", "article": "if-you-bought-1000-of-moderna-mrna-calls-before-the-cancer-vaccine-win", "entry": { "spot": 174.38, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-19", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "August 19 2026 close per stockanalysis.com and CNBC; $183.97 extended-hours print on the retail broker chain the same evening, a snapshot. No forward implied move sourced for Thursday strikes; at the close the deep ITM $80C asked $95.45 against $94.38 of intrinsic value." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 768.89, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "mrna-long-shares-2026-08-19", "ticker": "MRNA", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "Long MRNA common at the August 19 close, held into the full INTerpath-001 data presentation", "thesis": "The Phase 3 hazard ratio lands close enough to KEYNOTE-942 Phase 2b prior of 0.51 that the repricing holds, and MRNA trades above its $174.38 August 19 close in the week after the full data is presented.", "conviction": 5, "catalyst": "Full INTerpath-001 dataset at an upcoming medical meeting, date not yet announced", "invalidation": "A hazard ratio materially weaker than the Phase 2b prior, or a close back below the $121.90 August 19 opening print before the data lands.", "logged": "2026-08-19", "article": "if-you-bought-1000-of-moderna-mrna-calls-before-the-cancer-vaccine-win", "entry": { "spot": 174.38, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-19", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "August 19 2026 regular-session close per stockanalysis.com and CNBC, after the largest one-day gain in company history (+176.97% from a $62.96 prior close)." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 768.89, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "auna-long-shares-chase-pass-2026-08-19", "ticker": "AUNA", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on buying AUNA common stock at the Wednesday close, chasing the round trip", "thesis": "The stock already erased a 15.13% intraday drop by the close, and full-year guidance now needs roughly 25% second-half Adjusted EBITDA growth against a first half that shrank 4%, so the round trip did not resolve the actual open question.", "conviction": 4, "catalyst": "Auna S.A. Q3 2026 results, expected around November 2026", "invalidation": "A pre-announcement or interim disclosure showing the margin pressures management called temporary reversing before Q3, which would make the stock cheap rather than merely unresolved.", "logged": "2026-08-19", "article": "why-is-auna-stock-up-today-earnings-miss-recovery", "entry": { "spot": 5.43, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-19", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "August 19 2026 close per stockanalysis.com, up 0.18% from Tuesday's $5.42 close after an intraday range of $4.60 to $5.64 (day low confirmed against Google Finance)." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 768.89, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "auna-options-pass-2026-08-19", "ticker": "AUNA", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on any directional options structure", "thesis": "No live, reliably sourced AUNA option chain could be found this session for a $400 million foreign private issuer with a thin float, and a quoted spread on a name this size is often not a tradeable price.", "conviction": 3, "catalyst": "Auna S.A. Q3 2026 results, expected around November 2026", "invalidation": "A sourced, verifiable AUNA option chain becoming available with a checkable premium.", "logged": "2026-08-19", "article": "why-is-auna-stock-up-today-earnings-miss-recovery", "entry": { "spot": 5.43, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-19", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Same August 19 2026 close as the stock-direction row logged alongside it. No live options chain could be sourced." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 768.89, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "koid-shares-pass-2026-08-20", "ticker": "KOID", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on KOID common stock as a way to trade Unitree Robotics' 460% Shanghai IPO pop", "thesis": "KOID is a diversified humanoid-robotics basket, not a single-name Unitree play; the fund's own materials only model an approximately 8% Unitree weight once QFII status or Stock Connect eligibility lets the fund actually add the STAR Market shares, and I could not confirm that has happened yet, so buying KOID today buys a broad basket to express a one-name view.", "conviction": 4, "catalyst": "Unitree Robotics STAR Market IPO, priced August 18 2026, debut August 19 2026, no US ADR or Nasdaq/NYSE listing", "invalidation": "Confirmed evidence that KOID's actual holdings include Unitree at a meaningful weight, which would turn this into a real, if diluted, proxy trade rather than a basket bet.", "logged": "2026-08-20", "article": "can-you-buy-unitree-robotics-stock-460-percent-ipo", "entry": { "spot": 37.96, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-20", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Quoted price during the August 20 2026 session per market data aggregators; KOID trades a market cap of roughly $324 million and a few thousand dollars of daily volume, and Nasdaq lists no options chain for it." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 762.78, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "kstr-shares-pass-2026-08-20", "ticker": "KSTR", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on KSTR common stock as a way to trade Unitree Robotics' 460% Shanghai IPO pop", "thesis": "KSTR tracks the STAR Market 50 by scheduled index review, not real-time inclusion, and Unitree's post-listing size does not guarantee entry until the next review, expected around December 2026, so KSTR is a STAR Market breadth bet rather than verified Unitree exposure for at least the next several months.", "conviction": 3, "catalyst": "Unitree Robotics STAR Market IPO, priced August 18 2026, debut August 19 2026, no US ADR or Nasdaq/NYSE listing", "invalidation": "Unitree's confirmed inclusion in the STAR 50 index at the December 2026 review, which would convert this from breadth exposure into confirmed name exposure.", "logged": "2026-08-20", "article": "can-you-buy-unitree-robotics-stock-460-percent-ipo", "entry": { "spot": 23.91, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-20", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Quoted price during the August 20 2026 session per market data aggregators. No live, verifiable KSTR options chain could be sourced this session." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 762.78, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "nvda-weekly-calls-pass-2026-08-20", "ticker": "NVDA", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on at-the-money August 28 2026 weekly calls bought into the August 26 Q2 FY2027 print", "thesis": "Nvidia's realised close-to-close move through August 28 comes in inside the 5.8% the August 28 weeklies are pricing, so front-week long premium bought into this print loses even if the direction is right.", "conviction": 7, "catalyst": "Nvidia fiscal Q2 2027 results, August 26 2026 after the close, with Warsh's Jackson Hole speech on August 28 inside the same weekly expiry", "invalidation": "A close-to-close move beyond 5.8% in either direction by the August 28 expiry, which is what the ~25% of quarters where Nvidia clears its implied move look like.", "logged": "2026-08-20", "article": "nvidia-nvda-q2-fy2027-earnings-preview-august-26", "entry": { "spot": 216.85, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-20", "implied_move_pct": 5.8, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Spot is the August 20 2026 close per stockanalysis.com, down 0.33%; a second feed read $216.95. Implied move is the August 28 weekly reading reported by moomoo on August 20 (about $12.60 against a ~$219 spot at the time of that read). Strike-level premiums were not sourceable, so the row is quoted against the implied move rather than a debit, per the house rule on unsourced chains. Base rates behind the pass: 4.8% average realised move over the last 12 quarters, realised inside implied in 6 of the last 8 reports, and realised beating implied roughly 25% of the time (EarningsWatcher)." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 762.6, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": "Rows 1-3 of the same article's trade log were struck on August 7 and are not represented in the ledger: they predate both the ledger requirement and conviction recording, and are left as published rather than backfilled.", "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "tnon-options-pass-2026-08-21", "ticker": "TNON", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on any TNON options structure", "thesis": "No live, verifiable TNON option chain could be sourced on a stock that just completed a 1-for-35 reverse split and has never carried a listed chain, so there is no premium to price a view against in either direction.", "conviction": 4, "catalyst": "USPTO notice of allowance on a sacroiliac-joint-implant patent, announced August 19 2026, following a 1-for-35 reverse split effective August 10 2026", "invalidation": "A sourced, verifiable TNON option chain becoming available, which has not happened at any point in the company's trading history checked this session.", "logged": "2026-08-21", "article": "why-is-tenon-medical-tnon-stock-down-38-percent-after-patent-spike", "entry": { "spot": 7.07, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-20", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Spot is the August 20 2026 close per stockanalysis.com and Google Finance, down 38.04% from Wednesday's $11.41 close. No live options chain could be sourced; Nasdaq's own option-chain page shows none listed." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 762.78, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "tnon-chase-shares-pass-2026-08-21", "ticker": "TNON", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on buying or shorting TNON common stock to chase either the Wednesday spike or the Thursday reversal", "thesis": "The stock round-tripped +109.4% then -38.0% across two sessions on a 667,000-share float, and Q2's genuine 127% revenue growth does not resolve whether $1.7 million of cash against a $4.1 million quarterly loss makes this a buy before the ATM program's actual pace of dilution is known.", "conviction": 5, "catalyst": "USPTO notice of allowance on a sacroiliac-joint-implant patent (Aug 19 2026), against a $100 million shelf registration and $4.4 million ATM program disclosed August 17 2026", "invalidation": "A disclosed pace of ATM sales, or a case-volume or revenue update, that lets the cash runway be estimated with more precision than the June 30 balance sheet alone allows.", "logged": "2026-08-21", "article": "why-is-tenon-medical-tnon-stock-down-38-percent-after-patent-spike", "entry": { "spot": 7.07, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-20", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Spot is the August 20 2026 close per stockanalysis.com and Google Finance, down 38.04% from Wednesday's $11.41 close, which was itself up 109.4% from Tuesday's $5.45 close on the patent notice of allowance." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 762.78, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } } ] }, { "week_of": "2026-08-10", "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-10-2026", "notes": "First week logged under the conviction and benchmark rules added 2026-08-14, so every row carries a 1-10 conviction stated before the outcome and, where it could be sourced in session, the SPY level at entry. Rows are opened as the articles publish and graded in a later scorecard. The week event is Reddit joining the S&P 500 before the open on Tuesday August 18, with the rebalance trade printing in Monday August 17 closing auction. It also carries the three Nu Holdings rows from the August 9 preview, logged before the ledger rule existed and graded on the August 14 close by that article's own final-scoring update, which is why their scorecard_article is the preview rather than a scorecard piece. It also carries three rows from the August 15 off-price preview covering TJX (August 19, before the open) and Ross Stores (August 20, after the close, so its reaction session is August 21). It also carries two rows from the August 15 Nu Holdings decision piece, struck against the August 14 close after the Q2 print, which sit alongside the three NU preview rows already graded on that same close. It also carries two rows from the August 15 Deere decision piece, struck against the August 14 close ahead of the August 20 fiscal Q3 print: a long straddle and a pass on the shares, which is a deliberate split rather than a contradiction. It also carries three rows from the August 15 Baidu decision piece, struck against the August 14 close ahead of the August 18 Q2 print: a pending 12-month long that only enters after the print, a pass on holding the shares through it, and a pass on buying the straddle. The first two are deliberately opposed and are scored over different windows. It also carries one row from the August 15 NetEase decision piece, a 12-month long struck against the August 14 close ahead of the August 20 Q2 print, which sits alongside the straddle pass already logged from that name's preview. It also carries two rows from the August 15 Wolfspeed decision piece, struck against the August 14 close ahead of the August 19 fiscal Q4 print: a long straddle and a pass on the shares, a deliberate split rather than a contradiction. It also carries one row from the August 15 AvalonBay piece: a pass on the AVB-to-Vivmark merger arbitrage, struck against the August 14 closes and graded on the August 17 close when the merger completes. It also carries two rows from the August 15 Nutanix preview, struck against the August 14 close ahead of the August 26 fiscal Q4 print: a pass on the September 18 straddle, which is the nearest listed expiry and prices three weeks rather than the event, and a pass on the shares into the print. The two are scored over different windows and are not opposed. It also carries three rows from the August 15 Fabrinet preview, struck against the August 14 close ahead of the August 17 fiscal Q4 print: a pass on the straddle, a pass on carrying the shares through the event, and a pending 12-month long that only enters after the reaction session. The last two are deliberately opposed and are scored over different windows. It also carries two rows from the August 16 Zymeworks decision piece, struck against the August 14 close ahead of the August 25 FDA PDUFA date on zanidatamab in first-line gastroesophageal cancer: a long-shares call and a pass on options because no live chain could be sourced. On August 18, the two scored Baidu (BIDU) rows were graded against the Q2 print: adjusted EPS missed hard and free cash flow worsened to about -$1.18bn, and the stock closed down about 12.35% to $90.87, the third downside break of the 5.8% implied move in nine reports. The pass on holding shares through the print wins; the pass on the long straddle loses, since the realised move would have paid for it. The 12-month long (row 1) enters today as planned, now struck at the $90.87 close instead of the $103.67 reference level. On August 19, the four Wednesday-morning rows carried here were marked against the regular-session close rather than graded: TJX's straddle pass (close $144.50, a 4.21% move inside the 4.4% implied but 90 cents through the lower breakeven, unsettled until the August 21 expiry) and its long-shares row (down 5.00% against $152.11). Both Wolfspeed rows were marked at the $29.09 regular close ahead of the after-close print; the fiscal Q4 release gave AI data center growth as a percentage again with no dollar base, revenue of $149.6m and a fiscal Q1 guide of the same $140-160m, and the stock was quoted near $26.23 at 4:24pm ET in extended hours, so both are scored on the August 20 close. Four Target rows were added the same day from trade logs that had been published without ledger rows: two from the August 13 preview (a pass on the ~$154 straddle and a long ~$150 September put) and two from the August 13 decision piece (a $150/$140 August 21 put spread and a pass on the shares at $155.51). All four were logged before conviction recording began on 2026-08-14 and so carry a null conviction rather than one invented after the outcome. Target closed August 19 at $159.00, up 4.28% at a 52-week high, after trading as low as $146.21. Two rows were added on August 19 from the August 14 Analog Devices preview, which had published a trade log without matching ledger entries: a pass on any pre-print options position, struck against the $381.17 August 13 close, and a conditional post-print long that triggered off the $378.55 August 19 open when the fiscal Q4 guide cleared the 49.0% adjusted operating margin trigger at 52.0%. Both are marked at the $373.26 August 19 close rather than scored.", "calls": [ { "id": "amat-long-straddle-2026-08-12", "ticker": "AMAT", "category": "volatility", "stance": "long", "structure": "long $550 straddle, August 14 2026 weekly expiry", "thesis": "AMAT's realised move on the FQ3 print beats the roughly 7.5% implied, on a stock that printed +13.42% on June 25 and about +15% on July 30 inside the prior seven weeks.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "FQ3 2026 earnings, August 13 2026 after the close", "invalidation": "A pre-agreed print plus an FQ4 guide that merely reiterates the 30%-plus systems growth already promised, producing a 2-3% shrug and leaving both breakevens intact.", "logged": "2026-08-12", "article": "is-applied-materials-amat-a-buy-before-earnings-august-13", "entry": { "spot": 548.15, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-12", "implied_move_pct": 7.5, "implied_move_high_pct": 11.03, "note": "No live option chain could be sourced, so the roughly $41 cost (about 7.5% of spot) is derived from the Bloomberg-compiled implied move rather than a quoted price. Breakevens $591 up and $509 down. A second read from TipRanks priced 11.03%, struck against a $527.48 close rather than Wednesday's, and the piece flagged that the two disagree by an unusual margin." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": null, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": -7.47, "exit_spot": 507.18, "exit_date": "2026-08-14", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "FQ3 2026 earnings, reported after the August 13 close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-10-2026", "note": "AMAT closed August 14 at $507.18, a 7.47% move against the entry, missing the thesis's own 7.5% implied floor by three-hundredths of a point. That is close enough to call the thesis a wash, but a straddle buyer paying full premium at the 7.5% cost still would not have cleared breakeven on the settled close, so the pass is graded a win by the thinnest possible margin. EPS $3.50 and revenue $9.115bn both landed inside Applied Materials' own guided ranges (per the company's Q3 2026 release); the sell-off was a China-mix and flat-margin story, not a beat-or-miss one. (One data vendor quote page showed $507.18 while its own history table lists $506.00 for the same session; the gap is under 0.3% and does not change the grade.)" }, "mark": null, "notes": "Row 1 of the decision piece's trade log, added to the ledger on 2026-08-14 when the gap was found. Conviction is null because the call was logged on 2026-08-12, before conviction recording began, and backfilling one after the fact would make the calibration table a fiction.", "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": -32.27561196736174, "return_basis": "modeled", "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "amat-long-shares-pass-2026-08-12", "ticker": "AMAT", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long AMAT common stock into the FQ3 print", "thesis": "At about 43x forward earnings after a 4.29% rally into a two-sided print, AMAT's multiple leaves no room for a merely adequate FQ4 guide, so the shares fall from $548.15 whether or not the quarter beats.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "FQ3 2026 earnings, August 13 2026 after the close", "invalidation": "AMAT trading through $548.15 on the print, which would show the multiple absorbing a beat rather than compressing on one.", "logged": "2026-08-12", "article": "is-applied-materials-amat-a-buy-before-earnings-august-13", "entry": { "spot": 548.15, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-12", "implied_move_pct": 7.5, "implied_move_high_pct": 11.03, "note": "The pass declines to pay Wednesday's $548.15 close, which was itself up 4.29% on the day. The piece named roughly $505 as the level it would rather own the shares at." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": null, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": -7.47, "exit_spot": 507.18, "exit_date": "2026-08-14", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "FQ3 2026 earnings, reported after the August 13 close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-10-2026", "note": "AMAT fell 7.47% to $507.18 on the print, confirming the multiple could not absorb a merely in-line quarter after a 108% year-to-date run. The pass avoided the drop. (One data vendor quote page showed $507.18 while its own history table lists $506.00 for the same session; the gap is under 0.3% and does not change the grade.)" }, "mark": null, "notes": "Row 2 of the decision piece's trade log, added to the ledger on 2026-08-14 when the gap was found. Conviction is null because the call predates conviction recording.", "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "kxiay-any-position-pass-2026-08-14", "ticker": "KXIAY", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "any new position in the KXIAY ADR (no listed US options chain found)", "thesis": "The SanDisk Investor Day read-through is already priced into the Aug 14 Tokyo close, so chasing KXIAY from here underperforms simply not adding.", "conviction": 3, "catalyst": "SanDisk Aug 13 Investor Day guidance, read-through to Asian memory names, Aug 14 Tokyo session", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-14", "article": "why-is-kioxia-stock-up-today-japan-memory-giant-explained", "entry": { "spot": 53740, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Spot is the Aug 14 285A.T (Tokyo) close in yen, per Investing.com. No listed US options chain was found for the OTC ADR KXIAY." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": null, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "unscorable", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "The best-sourced print (Tokyo-listed 285A.T, JPY 53,740 to JPY 61,840, +15.1%, August 14 to August 17) is two-source verified, but the August 21 print used to close out the week (around JPY 54,320) had only one strong source plus a loosely-agreeing secondhand check, short of this site's two-source bar. What is clear: the shares round-tripped, up as much as 15% then back down about 19% from that peak, netting out close to flat. Given the weak verification on the closing print and a thesis ('chasing from here underperforms not adding') that names no price target, this is left out of the hit rate rather than forced." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "ntes-long-straddle-pass-2026-08-14", "ticker": "NTES", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long straddle into the print", "thesis": "NetEase's reaction move stays under 3%, so buying the straddle into the August 20 print does not pay.", "conviction": 6, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 results, Aug 20 before the US open", "invalidation": "A hard Ananta launch date on the earnings call, which could produce a gap the last two reaction sessions do not predict.", "logged": "2026-08-14", "article": "netease-ntes-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-20", "entry": { "spot": 122.65, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-13", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "No live NTES chain was reachable, so no implied move is logged. The pass is graded against a 3% realised-move threshold drawn from the last two reaction sessions, -0.2% after the Q1 2026 beat and -2.12% premarket after the Q4 2025 miss." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 777.88, "spy_exit": 762.6 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": -2.31, "exit_spot": 119.81, "exit_date": "2026-08-20", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "Q2 2026 earnings, reported August 20 2026", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-10-2026", "note": "NetEase closed August 20 at $119.81 against the $122.65 entry, a 2.31% move, comfortably under the 3% threshold the piece itself set for the straddle not to pay. Revenue of RMB 30.1bn (+7.9% YoY) beat consensus; the adjusted EPS miss was driven by roughly RMB 3.0bn of equity-investment mark-to-market losses on the Alibaba and Pinduoduo stakes, not an operating shortfall. Stock had already round-tripped back to about $128 by August 21 on no new news, underlining how small the actual earnings-day move was relative to the surrounding noise." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": -1.9643132616856018, "alpha_pct": -0.3456867383143982 } }, { "id": "rddt-long-call-pass-2026-08-14", "ticker": "RDDT", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long call into the index auction, $180C Aug 21 weekly at $7.65 ask", "thesis": "RDDT does not close above $187.65 by the August 21 expiry, so the at-the-money weekly call bought into the index add expires below its breakeven.", "conviction": 7, "catalyst": "S&P 500 inclusion effective before the open Aug 18; index rebalance prints in the Aug 17 closing auction", "invalidation": "A close above $187.65 on or before 2026-08-21 makes the call profitable and this pass a loss.", "logged": "2026-08-14", "article": "why-is-reddit-rddt-stock-up-sp-500-inclusion", "entry": { "spot": 178.37, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 7, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Aug 21 ATM straddle mid-market ran 6.69% of spot at the $180 strike and 7.18% at $177.50; quoted at ~7%. Chain struck against a 10:33am ET quote." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 777, "spy_exit": 765.72 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": -14.1, "exit_spot": 153.17, "exit_date": "2026-08-21", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "S&P 500 inclusion, effective before the open August 18 2026", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-10-2026", "note": "RDDT closed August 21 (the call's own expiry) around $153.17, roughly $27 below the $180 strike and nowhere near the $187.65 breakeven. The index pop that carried the stock to $178+ intraday on August 14 was mechanical: J.P. Morgan estimated about $3bn of forced index-fund buying into the August 17 closing auction, and the stock gave essentially the entire move back over the following week." }, "mark": null, "notes": "The crowded trade: Aug 21 calls traded 19,540 contracts against 6,438 puts, better than three to one, with nearly 5,900 through the $180 strike.", "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": -1.4517374517374448, "alpha_pct": -12.648262548262554 } }, { "id": "rddt-shares-long-pass-2026-08-14", "ticker": "RDDT", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long the shares on the index-inclusion pop", "thesis": "The S&P 500 seat does not repair the Google referral funnel, so buying the shares 13% higher on index news underperforms; RDDT trades below $178.69 by mid-September.", "conviction": 8, "catalyst": "S&P 500 inclusion effective Aug 18", "invalidation": "A landmark AI-licensing deal priced well above the existing ones, or US daily active users growing again while management still calls search referral traffic choppy.", "logged": "2026-08-14", "article": "why-is-reddit-rddt-stock-up-sp-500-inclusion", "entry": { "spot": 178.69, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "10:35am ET quote, +13.01% against Thursday's $158.12 close." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 777, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": "Carries forward the August 10 decision piece's no, at a price 14% higher and on unchanged fundamentals.", "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "rddt-call-skew-short-pass-2026-08-14", "ticker": "RDDT", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "short the call skew, Aug 21 $185/$190 bear call spread for ~$1.50 credit against $3.50 max loss", "thesis": "The August 21 call skew is rich but not safe to sell: a 13.37% short float with a calendared forced buyer can run through the $185 short strike, so the credit does not compensate for the tail.", "conviction": 5, "catalyst": "S&P 500 inclusion effective Aug 18", "invalidation": "A close below $185 at the August 21 expiry would have paid the spread in full and makes this pass a loss.", "logged": "2026-08-14", "article": "why-is-reddit-rddt-stock-up-sp-500-inclusion", "entry": { "spot": 178.37, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 7, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Spread priced from mid-market: $185 call bid $5.10, $190 call ask $3.60. Breakeven $186.50." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 777, "spy_exit": 765.72 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": -14.1, "exit_spot": 153.17, "exit_date": "2026-08-21", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "S&P 500 inclusion, effective before the open August 18 2026", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-10-2026", "note": "RDDT settled the August 21 expiry around $153.17, far below both the $185 and $190 strikes: the bear call spread this page considered selling would have expired worthless and kept its full $1.50 credit against a $3.50 max loss that was never remotely tested. The tail risk the piece worried about (a 13.37% short float squeezed by the forced index buyer) never showed up; passing on a clean premium sale is scored a loss." }, "mark": null, "notes": "Logged at low conviction on purpose: the skew is genuinely rich and the pass may well cost. The site's only structural loss to date was a short-premium range breached, which is the precedent weighing on this row.", "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": -1.4517374517374448, "alpha_pct": -12.648262548262554 } }, { "id": "rddt-sep-put-fade-2026-08-14", "ticker": "RDDT", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "long put, the post-inclusion fade, $160P Sep 18 at $4.55 ask", "thesis": "The index pop fades once the price-insensitive buyer is done, and RDDT trades below $155.45 by the September 18 expiry, which is 1.7% below the pre-announcement close.", "conviction": 6, "catalyst": "Index demand ends after the Aug 17 auction and the Aug 18 inclusion; no company catalyst before September expiry", "invalidation": "RDDT holding above $160 into September expiry, which would mean the short covering permanently tightened the float rather than producing a spike.", "logged": "2026-08-14", "article": "why-is-reddit-rddt-stock-up-sp-500-inclusion", "entry": { "spot": 179.09, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 14.4, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Sep 18 ATM straddle ran 14.4% of spot at the $180 strike. Put cost is 2.5% of spot; breakeven $155.45." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 777, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": "The one position on the week rather than a pass. Taken because the chain's skew makes downside cheap: the $190 call at +6.5% cost $3.40 against $1.29 for the $167.50 put at -6.1%.", "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "klc-long-shares-pass-2026-08-14", "ticker": "KLC", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long shares after the 45% drop", "thesis": "KLC trades below $2.65 at the Q3 2026 print, because second-half adjusted EBITDA is guided below the first half and 3.6x net leverage puts any further revision on the equity first.", "conviction": 5, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 results Aug 13, full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance cut to $200-220M from $215-235M; next check is the Q3 print", "invalidation": "Same-center occupancy turning up, or Q3 adjusted EBITDA above $60m, either of which points at the high end of the $200-220M range and takes the refinancing question off the table.", "logged": "2026-08-14", "article": "why-is-kindercare-klc-stock-down-guidance-cut-leverage", "entry": { "spot": 2.65, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Spot is the 1:00pm ET quote per StockAnalysis.com, down 45.13% from Thursday's $4.83 close. No options structure logged: listed strikes sit at $2.50 and $5.00, which is 6% below and 89% above spot." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": null, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": { "value": 2.74, "date": "2026-08-21", "label": "August 21 close about $2.74, +3.4% from the $2.65 entry. Still about 43% below the pre-crash $4.83 close, and JPMorgan (Sell), UBS and BMO all cut targets the week after the print. The thesis is scored against the Q3 2026 print, not this week's drift, so this stays open." }, "notes": "spy_entry left null because the call was logged intraday and the Aug 14 SPY close did not exist at writing. The pass is on the equity only; the instrument that actually expresses the recovery thesis here is the term loan, which retail cannot buy.", "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": 3.396226415094361, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "valn-long-option-pass-2026-08-14", "ticker": "VALN", "category": "event", "stance": "pass", "structure": "any long option position on the Lyme disease vaccine regulatory outcome", "thesis": "No EMA or FDA decision on the Pfizer/Valneva Lyme vaccine lands within the life of any option bought on this news, so a long premium position bleeds out before the catalyst it was bought for resolves.", "conviction": 4, "catalyst": "EMA validation of the marketing authorisation application for PF-07307405 on Aug 14 2026; company guides to regulatory decisions within twelve months, with no dated action date published", "invalidation": "Pfizer or Valneva publishing a dated FDA action date or a CHMP opinion date, which would turn this into a positionable event.", "logged": "2026-08-14", "article": "why-is-valneva-valn-stock-up-lyme-disease-vaccine-ema", "entry": { "spot": 7.2, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Spot is the 1:34pm ET VALN ADR quote per StockAnalysis.com, up 27.43% from Thursday's $5.65 close. VALN has a listed US chain but live premiums could not be sourced at writing, so the pass is logged against the undated catalyst rather than a priced structure." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": null, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": -3.06, "exit_spot": 6.98, "exit_date": "2026-08-21", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "EMA validation of the Pfizer/Valneva Lyme vaccine MAA, announced August 14 2026", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-10-2026", "note": "VALN closed August 21 around $6.98, down about 3% from the $7.20 entry and still roughly 23% above the pre-news $5.65 level, but flat to lower over the week the option would have needed to move to pay for itself. No new EMA or FDA date has been set; Pfizer's own timeline points to a decision roughly 12 months out. A long premium position bought against this week's pop had nothing left to catalyze it and would have bled time value." }, "mark": null, "notes": "spy_entry left null because the call was logged intraday and the Aug 14 SPY close did not exist at writing. Graded on whether a regulatory decision arrives inside a normal option horizon, not on the direction of the shares.", "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "umac-sep-call-pass-2026-08-14", "ticker": "UMAC", "category": "event", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long September 2026 call on UMAC (strikes not sourced)", "thesis": "A September expiry contains the Annex I/II finished-drone date but not the Feb 9 2027 Annex III component date, so a September long call on a components maker expires before the tariff that applies to its own products takes effect.", "conviction": 6, "catalyst": "Section 232 drone tariff proclamation signed Aug 13 2026: Annex I/II finished-drone rates effective Sep 3 2026, Annex III component rate effective Feb 9 2027", "invalidation": "UMAC sustaining a move above the Aug 14 intraday high on component orders booked before Feb 9 2027, which would show the second-order demand arriving ahead of the tariff date.", "logged": "2026-08-14", "article": "why-are-drone-stocks-up-tariff-two-dates", "entry": { "spot": 32.83, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Spot is the 2:47pm ET quote per StockAnalysis.com, up 20.52% from Thursday's $27.24 close; the stock printed as high as $33.95 (+24.6%) earlier in the session. Live September chain prices could not be sourced, so the pass is logged against near-ATM IV of roughly 119% and an IV percentile of 13% per Tradestie." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": null, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": { "value": 27.505, "date": "2026-08-21", "label": "August 21 close about $27.51, down 16.2% from the $32.83 entry. The September expiry this call would need has not arrived, and neither has the tariff date it was trying to price: the general Section 232 drone-tariff effective date is September 3 2026, still ahead. A bought call is underwater on delta alone so far." }, "notes": "spy_entry left null because the call was logged intraday and the Aug 14 SPY close did not exist at writing; SPY was $776.35, -0.20%, at 2:50pm ET.", "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": -16.21992080414255, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "umac-long-shares-pass-2026-08-14", "ticker": "UMAC", "category": "event", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long UMAC common stock", "thesis": "At roughly 51x trailing sales on $31.9m of revenue, UMAC's Friday move prices the Feb 9 2027 component tariff as if it were imminent, so the shares underperform the larger domestic drone makers from here.", "conviction": 5, "catalyst": "Section 232 drone tariff proclamation signed Aug 13 2026: Annex I/II finished-drone rates effective Sep 3 2026, Annex III component rate effective Feb 9 2027", "invalidation": "UMAC revenue scaling toward the market cap it now carries, or an acceleration of component orders that lands before the February tariff date.", "logged": "2026-08-14", "article": "why-are-drone-stocks-up-tariff-two-dates", "entry": { "spot": 32.83, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Spot is the 2:47pm ET quote per StockAnalysis.com. Market cap $1.64bn against $31.85m TTM revenue and -$6.46m net income; 49.96m shares outstanding reconcile to the quoted cap at this price." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": null, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": -16.2, "exit_spot": 27.505, "exit_date": "2026-08-21", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "Section 232 drone tariff proclamation, signed August 13 2026", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-10-2026", "note": "UMAC closed August 21 around $27.51, down 16.2% from the $32.83 entry, before either confirmed tariff effective date (September 3 2026 for finished drones, February 9 2027 for components) has actually landed. The Friday pop priced the tariff as already-arrived; it wasn't, and the stock gave back the move in anticipation alone." }, "mark": null, "notes": "spy_entry left null because the call was logged intraday and the Aug 14 SPY close did not exist at writing; SPY was $776.35, -0.20%, at 2:50pm ET.", "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "capr-directional-options-pass-2026-08-12", "ticker": "CAPR", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on any directional options structure into the August 22 2026 PDUFA date", "thesis": "The setup into August 22 resolves more like a second FDA rejection than a Replimune-style reversal, so there is no directional options structure worth owning into the date.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Deramiocel PDUFA action date, August 22 2026", "invalidation": "Any development that removes the near-certain rejection the market was pricing, including the FDA siding with the minority of its own advisory panel.", "logged": "2026-08-12", "article": "capricor-capr-deramiocel-fda-decision-august-22-preview", "entry": { "spot": 3.93, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-11", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "The article logged the spot as roughly $3.90-3.95, the August 11 close area; $3.93 is the August 11 close per stockanalysis.com. No live option chain could be sourced, so the pass carries no implied move and is graded on the underlying instead. CAPR closed at $4.19 on August 12, the publication session." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 772.49, "spy_exit": 776.34 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": 69.21, "exit_spot": 6.65, "exit_date": "2026-08-14", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "Capricor said on its August 13 call it will amend the BLA to a narrower upper-limb indication and that the FDA will extend the August 22 action date on receipt; the stock closed +57.96% on August 14.", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "why-capricor-capr-stock-rose-58-percent-fda-decision-delayed", "note": "Graded a loss under the rule that a pass is scored as the trade the reader did not make: any long-delta structure would have paid. Realised move is +69.21% from the $3.93 logged spot, and +58.71% from the $4.19 close of the publication session; both are losses, and the larger figure is quoted because it is the spot the article actually published. Thesis graded false on the tradeable claim. The underlying regulatory question is unresolved rather than decided: the FDA has approved nothing, and the August 22 date is being extended once the amendment is received." }, "mark": null, "notes": "The August 12 preview carried no conviction column, and conviction recording began 2026-08-14, so none is backfilled. The piece's diagnosis of the HOPE-3 endpoint split was the basis on which Capricor narrowed the label two days later; only the trade call is graded here.", "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": 0.49838832865150007, "alpha_pct": 68.71161167134849 } }, { "id": "capr-short-august-premium-pass-2026-08-14", "ticker": "CAPR", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on selling August 21 2026 expiry premium against the removed PDUFA catalyst", "thesis": "The August 21 expiry no longer contains the deramiocel decision, so event premium priced into it decays without the stock having to move.", "conviction": 4, "catalyst": "August 21 2026 monthly expiry, the day before the superseded August 22 PDUFA date", "invalidation": "The FDA acting on the original August 22 date anyway, or the BLA amendment not being submitted and the extension never being confirmed, either of which leaves a live catalyst inside the expiry.", "logged": "2026-08-14", "article": "why-capricor-capr-stock-rose-58-percent-fda-decision-delayed", "entry": { "spot": 6.65, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Spot is the August 14 close per stockanalysis.com ($6.65, +57.96%) and investing.com ($6.66, +58.19%), both against a $4.21 prior close. No live option chain could be sourced, so no premium level is recorded and the row is a stated view rather than a priced structure." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.34, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "unscorable", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "No specific strikes were ever logged for this premium sale, so there is no breakeven to grade against. What is known: CAPR was not calm. It logged four straight double-digit-swing sessions after the entry (Aug 17 +12.0%, Aug 18 -5.0%, Aug 19 +12.7%, Aug 20 -14.3%), even with the PDUFA date pushed out, before settling around $6.14-6.24 into the August 21 expiry (-6% to -8% net for the week). The thesis that removing the catalyst would let event premium decay quietly looks wrong on the realized volatility; the specific structure just cannot be priced after the fact." }, "mark": null, "notes": "Conviction is 4 because the direction of the view is well supported by the calendar while the execution is not verifiable: a $6 microcap that traded 21x average volume with a 34% intraday range carries spreads that can consume the premium being sold. Graded later on whether the August 21 expiry passed without the decision in it.", "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "aaoi-pass-long-shares-2026-08-14", "ticker": "AAOI", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on buying AAOI shares at the August 14 2026 close of $150.28", "thesis": "A 15.53% session with no company announcement behind it is momentum positioning rather than new information, so the move gives back more often than it extends.", "conviction": 5, "catalyst": "None on the day. The Q2 print was August 6 and the Reuters report on the FCC draft was August 4.", "invalidation": "The FCC publishing the transceiver rule, or AAOI pre-announcing Q3 above the $255-290m guide, either of which supplies the information Friday's move lacked.", "logged": "2026-08-14", "article": "why-is-aaoi-stock-up-15-percent-no-catalyst", "entry": { "spot": 150.28, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Spot is the August 14 2026 regular-session close per stockanalysis.com, $150.28 against a $130.08 prior close, +15.53%. No live option chain could be sourced, so the row is a stated directional view rather than a priced structure." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.34, "spy_exit": 765.72 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": -16.94, "exit_spot": 124.82, "exit_date": "2026-08-21", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "No identified company-specific catalyst; the August 14 spike followed August 6 earnings and an August 4 FCC transceiver-ban report", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-10-2026", "note": "AAOI closed August 21 at $124.82, down 16.94% from the $150.28 entry and actually below the pre-spike $130.08 close: the entire 15.53% pop reversed and then some within a week, with an unexplained 15.16% single-day drop on August 18 doing most of the damage." }, "mark": null, "notes": "Conviction is 5 because the observation is well sourced (no same-day catalyst, confirmed by the outlet covering the move) while the timing is not: a crowded momentum leg can run for weeks past the point where the news supporting it ran out. Graded on a later close.", "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": -1.367957338279624, "alpha_pct": -15.572042661720378 } }, { "id": "aaoi-pass-short-premium-2026-08-14", "ticker": "AAOI", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on selling premium against the August 14 2026 spike, no chain sourced", "thesis": "Realised volatility in AAOI keeps beating what a seller would be paid: three double-digit sessions in nine trading days, one of them on no news at all.", "conviction": 7, "catalyst": "Sessions of about +17% on August 4, about +13% on August 7 and +15.53% on August 14 2026.", "invalidation": "AAOI trading through to the September expiry without another session above 10%, which would make the realised-beats-implied claim wrong for this window.", "logged": "2026-08-14", "article": "why-is-aaoi-stock-up-15-percent-no-catalyst", "entry": { "spot": 150.28, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "No live option chain could be sourced at the August 14 close, so no premium level is recorded. The row is scored on whether AAOI prints another double-digit session before the September 2026 expiry, which is the claim being made." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.34, "spy_exit": 765.72 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": -16.94, "exit_spot": 124.82, "exit_date": "2026-08-21", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "No identified company-specific catalyst", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-10-2026", "note": "The realized-volatility-beats-implied claim confirmed itself inside the week: AAOI moved 15.53% on the entry day, then 15.16% the other way three sessions later, with no company news behind either move. A premium seller against this name would have been tested repeatedly; passing was correct." }, "mark": null, "notes": "Conviction is 7, higher than row 1, because the volatility claim rests on three observed sessions in the name itself rather than on a view about where the price goes next. The 52-week range of $18.50 to $233.67 supports it independently.", "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": -1.367957338279624, "alpha_pct": -15.572042661720378 } }, { "id": "nu-pass-long-straddle-2026-08-09", "ticker": "NU", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on the $14 straddle, August 14 2026 expiry", "thesis": "Nu lands on consensus with a median surprise of 0.4%, so the realised move stays inside the 7.8% implied and buying the straddle overpays for a distribution that has not shown up.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, August 13 2026 after the close", "invalidation": "A move beyond $12.76 or $14.92 by the August 14 expiry.", "logged": "2026-08-09", "article": "nu-holdings-nu-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-13", "entry": { "spot": 13.84, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-07", "implied_move_pct": 7.8, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Spot is the August 7 2026 close of $13.84 cited in the preview. Implied move of 7.8% was logged without a live chain price, with breakevens stated in the piece as $12.76 and $14.92." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": null, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": 10.04, "exit_spot": 15.23, "exit_date": "2026-08-14", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "August 14 2026 close, the session each row was written to be scored against", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "nu-holdings-nu-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-13", "note": "NU closed August 14 at $15.23, a 10.04% move against the 7.8% implied, clearing the $14.92 upper breakeven stated in the piece and the $15.08 breakeven implied by a $14 strike at roughly $1.08 of premium. The straddle pays on either construction, so the pass is a loss and the thesis that Nu stays inside its implied move is wrong." }, "mark": null, "notes": "Row 1 of the preview's trade log, added to the ledger on 2026-08-14 when the rows were graded; the article predates the ledger rule. Conviction is null because the call was logged on 2026-08-09, before conviction recording began, and backfilling one after the outcome is known would make the calibration table a fiction. Placed in this week file rather than the week of August 3, where it was logged on August 9, because the August 3 week is the closed record of the calls the published scorecard graded: options-scorecard-august-3-2026 shipped at 11:45am ET on August 14 and this call only became scoreable at that afternoon's close. Appending it to that week would have moved a published hit rate after the fact.", "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "nu-pass-long-shares-2026-08-09", "ticker": "NU", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on buying NU shares into the print", "thesis": "With consensus being cut a cent over 30 days and risk-adjusted net interest margin down 100bp to 9.5%, buying the growth headline into the print is buying it without the funding of it.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, August 13 2026 after the close", "invalidation": "Risk-adjusted net interest margin stabilising or reversing, which would remove the reason for the pass.", "logged": "2026-08-09", "article": "nu-holdings-nu-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-13", "entry": { "spot": 13.84, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-07", "implied_move_pct": 7.8, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Spot is the August 7 2026 close of $13.84 cited in the preview. Scored against the August 14 close per the terms written into the row." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": null, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": 10.04, "exit_spot": 15.23, "exit_date": "2026-08-14", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "August 14 2026 close, the session each row was written to be scored against", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "nu-holdings-nu-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-13", "note": "NU closed August 14 at $15.23 against the $13.84 the pass was written on, so the trade not taken returned 10.04%. The thesis failed on its own terms: risk-adjusted NIM rose 290bp to 12.4% rather than compressing further, and net income crossed $1bn at a 33% return on equity." }, "mark": null, "notes": "Row 2 of the preview's trade log, added to the ledger on 2026-08-14 when the rows were graded. The margin question the preview built itself around was answered against the pass, which is the reason this row is worth keeping visible. Placed in this week file rather than the week of August 3, where it was logged on August 9, because the August 3 week is the closed record of the calls the published scorecard graded: options-scorecard-august-3-2026 shipped at 11:45am ET on August 14 and this call only became scoreable at that afternoon's close. Appending it to that week would have moved a published hit rate after the fact.", "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "nu-put-spread-hedge-2026-08-09", "ticker": "NU", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "$13 / $12 put spread, August 14 2026 expiry, as defined-risk downside protection", "thesis": "The credit disclosure disappoints and NU trades below $13 by the August 14 expiry, inside the implied range.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, August 13 2026 after the close", "invalidation": "NU holding above $13 through the August 14 expiry.", "logged": "2026-08-09", "article": "nu-holdings-nu-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-13", "entry": { "spot": 13.84, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-07", "implied_move_pct": 7.8, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Logged without a live debit because August 14 expiry option prices could not be sourced at writing; the piece said so and scored the row against the realised move and the $13 level." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": null, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": 10.04, "exit_spot": 15.23, "exit_date": "2026-08-14", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "August 14 2026 close, the session each row was written to be scored against", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "nu-holdings-nu-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-13", "note": "NU closed August 14 at $15.23, far above the $13 upper strike, so both legs expire worthless and the structure loses its full premium. The hedge cost little and protected nothing, which is what a hedge against the wrong direction does." }, "mark": null, "notes": "Row 3 of the preview's trade log, added to the ledger on 2026-08-14 when the rows were graded. Logged as a long options-direction call rather than a pass because it was a structure the piece put forward, not one it declined. Placed in this week file rather than the week of August 3, where it was logged on August 9, because the August 3 week is the closed record of the calls the published scorecard graded: options-scorecard-august-3-2026 shipped at 11:45am ET on August 14 and this call only became scoreable at that afternoon's close. Appending it to that week would have moved a published hit rate after the fact.", "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "wti-holds-above-80-2026-08-14", "ticker": "USO", "category": "macro", "stance": "long", "structure": "WTI crude holds above $80 through end-September 2026 (spot view, no option leg)", "thesis": "The IEA's 1.8m b/d quarterly deficit and the continuing Hormuz blockade keep WTI above the $80 level this site called a ceiling on July 12.", "conviction": 6, "catalyst": "Stalled US-Iran talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz; Bessent's new economic measures due the week of August 17 2026", "invalidation": "A verifiable Hormuz reopening, meaning tanker transits recovering in ship-tracking data, or any WTI close back below $80.", "logged": "2026-08-14", "article": "why-is-oil-up-iea-deficit-hormuz-blockade", "entry": { "spot": 82.4, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Spot is the WTI quote late on Aug 14 2026 per Trading Economics, an OTC/CFD price taken after the NYMEX settle rather than the official settlement. Brent was $88.59 on the same feed." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": null, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": { "value": 86.7, "date": "2026-08-21", "label": "WTI around $86.70 on August 21, comfortably above the $80 level and up from the $82.40 entry. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed over the August 15-16 weekend (Kpler ship-tracking data) and the UAE accused Iran of a third tanker attack; the call holds so far, and this is scored against an end-September checkpoint, not this week." }, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": 5.218446601941751, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "uso-refuse-to-fade-crude-rally-pass-2026-08-14", "ticker": "USO", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Re-entering the July 12 trade: selling out-of-the-money crude calls above $80 and buying short-dated USO puts into spikes", "thesis": "Fading crude rallies stops paying while the blockade holds, so the July $70-$80 range trade loses money from here.", "conviction": 7, "catalyst": "Reversal of the range call published July 12 2026 at WTI $73.52, whose stated $80 invalidation has now fired", "invalidation": "Crude falling back into the $70-$80 range and holding there, which would make fading correct again.", "logged": "2026-08-14", "article": "why-is-oil-up-iea-deficit-hormuz-blockade", "entry": { "spot": 82.4, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Spot is the WTI quote late on Aug 14 2026 per Trading Economics, an OTC/CFD price taken after the NYMEX settle rather than the official settlement. Brent was $88.59 on the same feed." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": null, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": 5.25, "exit_spot": 86.7, "exit_date": "2026-08-21", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "Ongoing Hormuz Strait tension; no single dated event", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-10-2026", "note": "WTI kept climbing, from $82.40 to about $86.70 by August 21, roughly 5% higher with no pullback into the $70-80 range. Re-entering the fade-the-spike trade (selling OTM calls above $80, buying short-dated puts) would have lost on both legs; passing was correct." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "uso-long-strangle-pending-2026-08-14", "ticker": "USO", "category": "volatility", "stance": "long", "structure": "Long strangle on USO, strikes and expiry not struck (no live options chain sourced)", "thesis": "Realised volatility in crude beats implied while one blockade headline can move WTI about 5% in either direction, as it did on August 3, August 10 and this week.", "conviction": 5, "catalyst": "Hormuz reopening talks resolving in either direction; IEA August deficit revision", "invalidation": "A reopening deal signed and crude settling into a new range, which collapses the volatility case.", "logged": "2026-08-14", "article": "why-is-oil-up-iea-deficit-hormuz-blockade", "entry": { "spot": 82.4, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Reference spot only, not a struck entry: WTI $82.40 late on Aug 14 2026 per Trading Economics (OTC quote, not the NYMEX settle). No live USO chain could be sourced on the Friday evening, so the structure is unpriced and stays pending." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": null, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "pending", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "Still no strikes or expiry sourced, so this stays pending. Crude's continued climb (WTI $82.40 to about $86.70 over the week, on top of the two prior weeks' Hormuz-driven swings) is exactly the realized-volatility case the row was built on; it just was never priced." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "baba-long-straddle-2026-08-14", "ticker": "BABA", "category": "volatility", "stance": "long", "structure": "long $124 straddle, August 21 2026 weekly expiry", "thesis": "BABA's realised move on the June-quarter print beats the roughly 5.7% implied, on a stock that has exceeded its implied move in five of its last eight reports including 10.2% against 5.8% implied in May 2026.", "conviction": 6, "catalyst": "June quarter 2026 results, August 20 2026 before the US open, call at 7:30am ET", "invalidation": "A print where cloud growth holds near 38% and quick-commerce losses narrow as guided, producing the consensus-shaped quarter that leaves both breakevens intact; three of the last eight reports moved 0.4-0.5%.", "logged": "2026-08-14", "article": "alibaba-baba-earnings-preview-august-20-2026", "entry": { "spot": 123.81, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 5.7, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "No live option chain could be sourced, so the cost is quoted as roughly 5.7% of spot from the Bloomberg-compiled implied move rather than a dealt price. Breakevens approximately $131.4 up and $116.2 down. Spot is the $123.81 close on stockanalysis.com at 4:00pm ET, up 1.35% from a $122.16 prior close." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 778.12, "spy_exit": 765.72 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": -3.51, "exit_spot": 119.465, "exit_date": "2026-08-21", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "Fiscal Q1 2027 (June-quarter) earnings, reported before the open August 20 2026", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-10-2026", "note": "BABA settled the August 21 weekly expiry around $119.47, a 3.51% move against the $123.81 entry, well inside the 5.7% implied breakevens (about $116.75 down, $130.87 up). Cloud revenue grew 45% YoY, the fastest in 22 quarters, but non-GAAP EPS missed on a 75% YoY jump in capex; the stock whipsawed (premarket -5.6%, closed +1.26% on August 20, then fell again to the expiry) without ever clearing either breakeven on a closing basis." }, "notes": "Row 1 of the preview's trade log. The distribution is fat-tailed rather than reliably underpriced: the three misses in the last eight moved 0.4-0.5% against implieds above 6%, which is what holds conviction at 6.", "mark": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": -38.42105263157896, "return_basis": "modeled", "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": -1.5935845370893875, "alpha_pct": -1.9164154629106123 } }, { "id": "baba-short-premium-pass-2026-08-14", "ticker": "BABA", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "selling August 21 premium into the print, including a covered call against BABA shares", "thesis": "Selling a 5.7% implied move in BABA is a losing call because realised has cleared implied in five of the last eight reports, so the premium collected does not cover the tail.", "conviction": 7, "catalyst": "June quarter 2026 results, August 20 2026 before the US open", "invalidation": "A realised close-to-close move inside 5.7% on August 20, which would make the premium sale the correct call.", "logged": "2026-08-14", "article": "alibaba-baba-earnings-preview-august-20-2026", "entry": { "spot": 123.81, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 5.7, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "A pass, so no premium is struck. Scored as the trade the reader did not make, against the same 5.7% implied and the $123.81 August 14 close." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 778.12, "spy_exit": 765.72 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": -3.51, "exit_spot": 119.465, "exit_date": "2026-08-21", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "Fiscal Q1 2027 earnings, reported before the open August 20 2026", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-10-2026", "note": "The realized move (3.51%) stayed inside the 5.7% implied all the way to expiry, which is exactly the condition the piece said would make selling premium correct. Passing on that sale is scored a loss." }, "notes": "Row 2 of the preview's trade log, and the higher-conviction of the two. Directly tests the July calibration lesson that 'the expected move looks wide' is not on its own a reason to sell volatility.", "mark": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": -1.5935845370893875, "alpha_pct": -1.9164154629106123 } }, { "id": "baba-long-stock-half-2026-08-14", "ticker": "BABA", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "long BABA ADS, half of intended size, taken before the June-quarter print", "thesis": "BABA at $123.81 is undervalued against its own cloud franchise and every named sell-side target, so the shares are higher than $123.81 when this call is graded.", "conviction": 7, "catalyst": "June quarter 2026 results, August 20 2026 before the US open, call at 7:30am ET", "invalidation": "Cloud revenue growth decelerating out of the high thirties, or quick-commerce losses widening again after management said the subsidy phase was over. Either breaks the reason to own it.", "logged": "2026-08-14", "article": "is-alibaba-baba-a-buy-before-earnings-august-20", "entry": { "spot": 123.81, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 5.7, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Stock call, so no option price is involved. Spot is the $123.81 regular-session close on stockanalysis.com at 4:00pm ET, up 1.35% from a $122.16 prior close. Half size by design; the second half is a separate conditional row." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 778.12, "spy_exit": 765.72 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": -3.51, "exit_spot": 119.465, "exit_date": "2026-08-21", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "Fiscal Q1 2027 earnings, reported before the open August 20 2026", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-10-2026", "note": "BABA is at $119.47 against the $123.81 entry, below the level the call needed to hold. The stock did rally intraday on cloud growth before fading back on capex-versus-revenue concerns; the position is underwater on the print it was sized for." }, "notes": "Row 1 of the decision piece's trade log. Direction call kept separate from the preview's two volatility rows on the same event so the scorecard can grade being right about the stock and right about the move independently.", "mark": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": -1.5935845370893875, "alpha_pct": -1.9164154629106123 } }, { "id": "baba-long-stock-scale-in-2026-08-14", "ticker": "BABA", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "long BABA ADS, second half, conditional on the stock trading below $117 after the print", "thesis": "A full implied-move drop to roughly $116.75 is a better entry than $123.81, because the quarter will have disappointed and the price will already carry it.", "conviction": 6, "catalyst": "June quarter 2026 results, August 20 2026 before the US open", "invalidation": "BABA never trades below $117 after the print, in which case the second half is never struck and the call is scored as the entry not taken.", "logged": "2026-08-14", "article": "is-alibaba-baba-a-buy-before-earnings-august-20", "entry": { "spot": 123.81, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 5.7, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Conditional and unstruck. Reference spot is the $123.81 August 14 close; the trigger is a print below $117, against a full implied-move-down level of $116.75." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 778.12, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "pending", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "Never triggered. BABA's post-print low was $119.23 on August 21, above the $117 trigger, so the second half was never struck. Left pending rather than invented; the reaction window this call was built around has now closed without a fill." }, "notes": "Row 2 of the decision piece's trade log. Stays pending rather than open because no entry has been struck; per section 8 no entry is invented to promote it.", "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "tjx-long-straddle-pass-2026-08-15", "ticker": "TJX", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long $152.50 straddle, August 21 2026 expiry", "thesis": "TJX's realised move on the August 19 print stays inside the 4.4% implied, as it has in six of its last eight releases, so the straddle does not pay.", "conviction": 6, "catalyst": "Q2 FY27 earnings, August 19 2026 before the open", "invalidation": "A move beyond $158.80 or $145.40 on the print, which would be the third upside breakout in nine releases.", "logged": "2026-08-15", "article": "tjx-ross-off-price-earnings-preview-august-19-20", "entry": { "spot": 152.11, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 4.4, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "No live option chain could be sourced, so the cost is quoted as roughly 4.4% of spot from the Bloomberg-compiled implied move rather than a traded price. Breakevens $158.80 up and $145.40 down." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.34, "spy_exit": 765.72 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": -7.61, "exit_spot": 140.53, "exit_date": "2026-08-21", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "Fiscal Q2 2027 earnings, reported before the open August 19 2026", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-10-2026", "note": "TJX closed the August 21 expiry at $140.53, a 7.61% move from the $152.11 entry that cleared the $145.40 lower breakeven with room to spare. Comp sales beat at +4% and full-year EPS guidance was raised, but a Q3 guide of $1.30-$1.32 landed below the roughly $1.35 Street consensus, and the stock kept sliding for three straight sessions rather than snapping back. The straddle this page passed on would have paid." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": -1.367957338279624, "alpha_pct": -6.242042661720376 } }, { "id": "tjx-long-shares-2026-08-15", "ticker": "TJX", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "long TJX common stock into the FQ2 print, scored on the August 19 2026 close", "thesis": "TJX closes above $152.11 on August 19, because the Q2 consensus of $1.18 sits a penny below the $1.19 earned in Q1 and the company has repeatedly reported above its own plan.", "conviction": 6, "catalyst": "Q2 FY27 earnings, August 19 2026 before the open", "invalidation": "A print confirming the sequential margin compression the Street has modelled, with fuel costs cutting the $5.08-5.15 full-year guide rather than holding it.", "logged": "2026-08-15", "article": "tjx-ross-off-price-earnings-preview-august-19-20", "entry": { "spot": 152.11, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 4.4, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Directional call with no option leg; scored on the August 19 close against the August 14 close of $152.11." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.34, "spy_exit": 769.06 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": -4.87, "exit_spot": 144.7, "exit_date": "2026-08-19", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "Fiscal Q2 2027 earnings, reported before the open August 19 2026", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-10-2026", "note": "TJX closed August 19 around $144.70 against the $152.11 entry, down 4.87%. The comp-sales beat and raised full-year guide were not enough to offset a Q3 EPS guide that missed Street numbers." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": -0.9377334672952653, "alpha_pct": -3.932266532704735 } }, { "id": "rost-long-shares-pass-2026-08-15", "ticker": "ROST", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long ROST common stock into the Q2 print, scored on the August 21 2026 close", "thesis": "ROST closes below $245.36 on August 21, because full-year consensus of $7.79 already sits above the top of the $7.50-7.74 company guide on a stock at about 32x that guide.", "conviction": 5, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, August 20 2026 after the close; reaction session August 21", "invalidation": "A Q2 comp above the guided 6-7% with a full-year raise through $7.79, showing the Q1 guidance beat repeating rather than fading.", "logged": "2026-08-15", "article": "tjx-ross-off-price-earnings-preview-august-19-20", "entry": { "spot": 245.36, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "No current implied move could be sourced. The widely syndicated 5.6% / $8.05 figure fails its own arithmetic, since $8.05 is 5.6% of about $144 against a $245.36 close, so it is from an earlier year and is not recorded here." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.34, "spy_exit": 765.72 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": -2.58, "exit_spot": 239.04, "exit_date": "2026-08-21", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "Q2 2026 earnings, reported after the close August 20 2026", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-10-2026", "note": "Ross closed August 21 at $239.04, still 2.58% below the $245.36 entry despite a strong beat (comps +10%, EPS $2.66 including a tariff-refund benefit against $1.85-$1.93 guidance) and a raised full-year outlook. The stock had fallen to $228.99 by the August 20 pre-print close; it popped as much as 7.05% to $245.15 in the after-hours print, then faded to close Friday up only 4.39% on the day at $239.04, still below the entry." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": -1.367957338279624, "alpha_pct": -1.2120426617203761 } }, { "id": "nu-long-shares-2026-08-15", "ticker": "NU", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "long NU common stock, no expiry, scored on the Q3 2026 earnings reaction session", "thesis": "NU trades above $15.23 into the Q3 print because a 33% return on equity at 17.3x annualised Q2 earnings re-rates, with risk-adjusted NIM holding above 11% and the 90+ day NPL ratio rolling back down from 6.9% as the Q1 cohort finishes seasoning.", "conviction": 6, "catalyst": "Q3 2026 earnings, expected November 2026", "invalidation": "A Q3 90+ day NPL ratio at or above 6.9% alongside risk-adjusted NIM back below 11%, or a Brazilian real weak enough to compress reported dollar growth toward the FX-neutral rate.", "logged": "2026-08-15", "article": "is-nu-holdings-nu-a-buy-after-1-billion-quarter", "entry": { "spot": 15.23, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Struck against the August 14 2026 close of $15.23, the session NU rose 9.33% on the Q2 result. No implied move recorded: the print is behind the entry, and no live option chain could be sourced on a Saturday." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.34, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": { "value": 14.58, "date": "2026-08-21", "label": "August 21 close $14.58, down 4.27% from the $15.23 entry. This call is scored against the Q3 2026 print, not this week's pullback; the reason to hold (ROE, NIM) has not yet been tested by a new quarter." }, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": -4.267892317793831, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "nu-long-calls-pass-2026-08-15", "ticker": "NU", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long NU calls bought into the session after the print; passed in favour of the shares", "thesis": "Long calls struck after the 9.33% gap underperform simply owning NU through the Q3 print, because the premium prices elevated implied volatility for a move that has already happened.", "conviction": 4, "catalyst": "Q3 2026 earnings, expected November 2026", "invalidation": "A continuation move of more than roughly 20% before the Q3 print, which would pay a long call far more than the shares on the capital committed.", "logged": "2026-08-15", "article": "is-nu-holdings-nu-a-buy-after-1-billion-quarter", "entry": { "spot": 15.23, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "No live option chain could be sourced on a Saturday, so no premium is recorded and the row is scored against the share row over the same window rather than on a quoted price." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.34, "spy_exit": 765.72 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": -4.27, "exit_spot": 14.58, "exit_date": "2026-08-21", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "Q2 2026 earnings, reported August 13-14 2026", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-10-2026", "note": "NU closed August 21 at $14.58, down 4.27% from the $15.23 entry on renewed credit-quality concerns (rising provisions, early-stage delinquencies). A short-dated call bought into the post-print session would have fought that decline on top of theta decay, worse than just owning the shares, which merely gave back the 4.27%." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": -1.367957338279624, "alpha_pct": -2.9020426617203756 } }, { "id": "amd-long-shares-2026-08-15", "ticker": "AMD", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "long AMD common stock, no expiry, scored on the Q3 2026 earnings reaction session", "thesis": "AMD trades above $514.39 into the Q3 print and works toward $800 by end-2027, because 2027 data center revenue more than doubles as management guided and 2027 EPS lands above $20, while Baird's $1,250 requires roughly $27 of EPS at today's 46.3x forward multiple and does not get there.", "conviction": 6, "catalyst": "Q3 2026 earnings, expected late October 2026", "invalidation": "Q3 2026 data center revenue below roughly $7.5bn, or any walk-back of the 2027 guidance for data center revenue to more than double.", "logged": "2026-08-15", "article": "is-amd-a-buy-after-street-high-1250-target", "entry": { "spot": 514.39, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Struck against the August 14 2026 close of $514.39, the session AMD rose 6.50% on Baird's $1,250 target and the $4.75bn note pricing. No implied move recorded: no live option chain could be sourced on a Saturday." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.34, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "amd-long-calls-pass-2026-08-15", "ticker": "AMD", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long AMD calls bought into the session after the 6.50% gap; passed in favour of the shares", "thesis": "Long calls struck after the gap underperform simply owning AMD through the Q3 print, because the premium prices implied volatility that repriced upward on the same news the calls are trying to capture.", "conviction": 3, "catalyst": "Q3 2026 earnings, expected late October 2026", "invalidation": "A continuation move of more than roughly 25% before the Q3 print, which would pay a long call far more than the shares on the capital committed.", "logged": "2026-08-15", "article": "is-amd-a-buy-after-street-high-1250-target", "entry": { "spot": 514.39, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "No live option chain could be sourced on a Saturday, so no premium is recorded and the row is scored against the share row over the same window rather than on a quoted price." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.34, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "de-long-straddle-2026-08-15", "ticker": "DE", "category": "volatility", "stance": "long", "structure": "long $610 straddle, August 21 2026 expiry", "thesis": "Deere's realised move on the fiscal Q3 print beats the roughly 5% implied, as it has in six of its last eight reports.", "conviction": 6, "catalyst": "Fiscal Q3 2026 earnings, August 20 2026 before the open", "invalidation": "A print landing on the $4.85 consensus with the $4.5-5.0bn full-year guide simply reiterated, producing a move inside $639.29 and $578.41 and leaving both breakevens intact.", "logged": "2026-08-15", "article": "is-deere-de-a-buy-before-earnings-august-20", "entry": { "spot": 608.85, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 5, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "No live option chain could be sourced with the market shut, so the cost is quoted as roughly 5.0% of spot from the compiled implied move rather than a traded price. Breakevens $639.29 up and $578.41 down." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.34, "spy_exit": 765.72 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": 7.01, "exit_spot": 651.54, "exit_date": "2026-08-21", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "Fiscal Q3 2026 earnings, reported before the open August 20 2026", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-10-2026", "note": "Deere closed the August 21 expiry at $651.54, up 7.01% from the $608.85 entry and clear of the $639.29 upper breakeven. EPS of $5.10 beat the $4.79 Zacks estimate by 6.5%, Construction & Forestry margin more than doubled to 12.1%, and the FY2026 net-income guidance floor was raised to $4.75bn. (One widely cited '17.5% revenue beat' figure compares total net sales against an equipment-operations-only consensus and does not reconcile; the clean beats are EPS and equipment-operations sales, +1.8%.)" }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": 40.19999999999999, "return_basis": "modeled", "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": -1.367957338279624, "alpha_pct": 8.377957338279623 } }, { "id": "de-long-shares-pass-2026-08-15", "ticker": "DE", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long DE common stock into the fiscal Q3 print, scored on the August 20 2026 close", "thesis": "DE does not reward buyers at $608.85, about 33x the $18.27 fiscal 2026 consensus, because that consensus already implies net income near the $5.0bn top of Deere's own $4.5-5.0bn guide.", "conviction": 7, "catalyst": "Fiscal Q3 2026 earnings, August 20 2026 before the open", "invalidation": "A Q4 outlook that makes $5.0bn of full-year net income look routine rather than a stretch, which would reset the multiple against a rising number and make the pass wrong.", "logged": "2026-08-15", "article": "is-deere-de-a-buy-before-earnings-august-20", "entry": { "spot": 608.85, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 5, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Directional pass with no option leg; scored on the August 20 close against the August 14 close of $608.85." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.34, "spy_exit": 762.6 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": 1.99, "exit_spot": 620.94, "exit_date": "2026-08-20", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "Fiscal Q3 2026 earnings, reported before the open August 20 2026", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-10-2026", "note": "Deere closed August 20 at $620.94, up 1.99% from the $608.85 entry: a modest gain, not the flat-to-down reaction the pass was built on. The guidance floor moved up to $4.75bn but the $5.0bn ceiling held, short of the specific bar (guidance making $5.0bn look routine) the invalidation named, so this is graded a narrow miss rather than a clean one; the stock kept drifting higher into the straddle's own expiry, closing $651.54 by August 21." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": -1.7698431099775869, "alpha_pct": 3.759843109977587 } }, { "id": "bidu-long-shares-2026-08-15", "ticker": "BIDU", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "long BIDU common stock, entered on the August 18 2026 close after the print, 12-month horizon", "thesis": "BIDU is worth more than $103.67 on a 12-month view because net cash and investments of about $27.9bn cover 79% of the $35.2bn market cap, leaving roughly $7.3bn for search, AI cloud, iQIYI, Apollo Go and 57.67% of Kunlunxin.", "conviction": 6, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, August 18 2026 before the open", "invalidation": "A second consecutive quarter of materially negative free cash flow after Q1's negative RMB 3.25bn, which would show the cash pile funding AI capex fast enough that the balance-sheet floor is moving.", "logged": "2026-08-15", "article": "is-baidu-bidu-a-buy-before-earnings-august-18", "entry": { "spot": 90.87, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-18", "implied_move_pct": 5.8, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Entered at the actual August 18 2026 close after the print, a materially better level than the $103.67 reference the call was written against, following a Q2 miss and a widened free-cash-flow burn." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.34, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": { "value": 93.21, "date": "2026-08-21", "label": "August 21 close $93.21, up 2.57% from the $90.87 entry. This is a 12-month call and stays open; the balance-sheet-floor thesis (net cash covering 79% of market cap) has not been tested by any new data point yet." }, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": 2.5751072961373245, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "bidu-long-shares-through-print-pass-2026-08-15", "ticker": "BIDU", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long BIDU common stock held through the Q2 print, scored on the August 18 2026 close", "thesis": "BIDU does not reward buyers who own it across the August 18 print, because both of its recent breaks of the implied move were downside (-9.2% in February 2026, -11.5% in November 2025) and nothing in the quarter revalues the cash pile that is the reason to own it.", "conviction": 6, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, August 18 2026 before the open", "invalidation": "BIDU closing above $103.67 on August 18, which would make waiting for the print a cost rather than a saving.", "logged": "2026-08-15", "article": "is-baidu-bidu-a-buy-before-earnings-august-18", "entry": { "spot": 103.67, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 5.8, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Directional pass with no option leg; scored on the August 18 close against the August 14 close of $103.67. Deliberately opposed to the 12-month long row, which enters after this print." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.34, "spy_exit": 768.64 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": -12.35, "exit_spot": 90.87, "exit_date": "2026-08-18", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "earnings released as scheduled", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "is-baidu-bidu-a-buy-before-earnings-august-18", "note": "BIDU closed at $90.87 on August 18, down about 12.35% from the $103.67 reference; the third downside break of implied in nine reports, consistent with the thesis." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": -0.99183347502384, "alpha_pct": -11.35816652497616 } }, { "id": "bidu-long-straddle-pass-2026-08-15", "ticker": "BIDU", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long at-the-money BIDU straddle, August 21 2026 expiry", "thesis": "BIDU's realised move on the Q2 print stays inside the 5.8% implied, as it has in five of its last eight reports.", "conviction": 5, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, August 18 2026 before the open", "invalidation": "A realised move beyond 5.8% in either direction on August 18, which the name has produced in three of its last eight reports.", "logged": "2026-08-15", "article": "is-baidu-bidu-a-buy-before-earnings-august-18", "entry": { "spot": 103.67, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 5.8, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "No live option chain could be sourced with the market shut, so the cost is quoted as roughly 5.8% of spot from the compiled implied move rather than a traded price. Breakevens about $109.68 up and $97.66 down." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.34, "spy_exit": 768.64 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": -12.35, "exit_spot": 90.87, "exit_date": "2026-08-18", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "earnings released as scheduled", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "is-baidu-bidu-a-buy-before-earnings-august-18", "note": "Realised move of about 12.35% more than doubled the 5.8% implied move; a long straddle would have profited." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": -0.99183347502384, "alpha_pct": -11.35816652497616 } }, { "id": "ntes-long-shares-2026-08-15", "ticker": "NTES", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "long NTES common stock, 12-month horizon", "thesis": "NetEase's Q2 non-GAAP profit is depressed by June 30 marks on its Alibaba and Pinduoduo stakes, and those stocks have since risen 29.0% and 11.2%, so the reported number understates the business and the Q3 mark reverses it.", "conviction": 6, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 results, Aug 20 2026 before the US open, with the reversal not reported until the Q3 print in November", "invalidation": "Games and related value-added services decelerating below the 6.9% posted last quarter, which would make the 16x multiple correct and the equity marks irrelevant.", "logged": "2026-08-15", "article": "is-netease-ntes-a-buy-before-earnings-august-20", "entry": { "spot": 125.12, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Struck against the Aug 14 close of $125.12 per stockanalysis.com, up 2.01% on the session and reconciling against the $122.65 Aug 13 close carried in the preview. No option structure logged: no live NTES chain was reachable with the market shut. The stake sizes in BABA and PDD could not be sourced, so the direction of the Q3 mark is logged but not its magnitude." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.34, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": { "value": 128.17, "date": "2026-08-21", "label": "August 21 close $128.17, up 2.44% from the $125.12 entry, after round-tripping through a $119.81 post-print low on August 20. The thesis is that Q3 marks on NetEase's Alibaba and Pinduoduo stakes reverse the depressed Q2 profit number; that mark has not printed yet." }, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": 2.437659846547291, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "wolf-long-straddle-2026-08-15", "ticker": "WOLF", "category": "volatility", "stance": "long", "structure": "long ~$32 straddle, August 21 2026 expiry", "thesis": "Wolfspeed's realised move on the fiscal Q4 print beats the 14% implied, as it did at roughly 1.8x implied on each of the last two reports (+45.2% against 24.8% in May, -13.0% against 6.9% in October 2025).", "conviction": 6, "catalyst": "Fiscal Q4 2026 earnings, August 19 2026 after the close, call at 5:00pm ET", "invalidation": "Management restating AI data center growth as another percentage with no dollar base and reiterating the existing guide, producing a shrug inside $36.24 and $27.34 and leaving both breakevens intact.", "logged": "2026-08-15", "article": "is-wolfspeed-wolf-a-buy-before-earnings-august-19", "entry": { "spot": 31.79, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 14, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "No live option chain could be sourced with the market shut, so the cost is quoted as roughly 14% of spot from the Bloomberg-compiled implied move rather than a traded price. ATM implied volatility reported near 138.7%. Breakevens $36.24 up and $27.34 down. Reaction session is August 20 because the print lands after the August 19 close." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.34, "spy_exit": 765.72 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": -18.31, "exit_spot": 25.97, "exit_date": "2026-08-21", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "Fiscal Q4 2026 earnings, reported after the close August 19 2026", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-10-2026", "note": "Wolfspeed closed the August 21 expiry at $25.97, down 18.31% from the $31.79 entry and through the $27.34 lower breakeven. Revenue of $149.6m landed in line with the company's own $140-160m guidance, but the non-GAAP loss of $2.26 a share was worse than every sourced consensus figure, and the stock fell as much as 10.5% in the premarket before settling down 9.4% on the reaction day, then kept falling into expiry." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": 30.785714285714285, "return_basis": "modeled", "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": -1.367957338279624, "alpha_pct": -16.942042661720375 } }, { "id": "wolf-long-shares-pass-2026-08-15", "ticker": "WOLF", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long WOLF common stock into the fiscal Q4 print", "thesis": "At roughly 3.6x sales on a guided $600m run-rate, with revenue down four quarters running and gross margin guided to stay negative, WOLF does not hold the 29% eight-session rally through a print that turns on an undisclosed AI data center figure.", "conviction": 7, "catalyst": "Fiscal Q4 2026 earnings, August 19 2026 after the close", "invalidation": "Wolfspeed disclosing AI data center revenue in dollars at a material level, which would let the segment be valued and justify the multiple as a mix-shift bet.", "logged": "2026-08-15", "article": "is-wolfspeed-wolf-a-buy-before-earnings-august-19", "entry": { "spot": 31.79, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 14, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Struck against the Aug 14 close of $31.79 per stockanalysis.com, up 0.89% and reconciling against the $31.51 Aug 13 close carried in the preview. Enterprise value near $2.2bn derived from a $1.65bn market cap plus roughly $520m net debt ($1.72bn total debt against $1.2bn cash at the Q3 balance sheet date). Deliberately opposed to the straddle row, which is direction-agnostic." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.34, "spy_exit": 765.72 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": -18.31, "exit_spot": 25.97, "exit_date": "2026-08-21", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "Fiscal Q4 2026 earnings, reported after the close August 19 2026", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-10-2026", "note": "WOLF gave back the entire eight-session, 29% run-up and more, closing 18.31% below the $31.79 entry by the same August 21 checkpoint as the straddle above. The pass on carrying shares into a print built on an undisclosed AI data-center dollar figure was correct." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": -1.367957338279624, "alpha_pct": -16.942042661720375 } }, { "id": "avb-merger-arb-pass-2026-08-15", "ticker": "AVB", "category": "event", "stance": "pass", "structure": "merger arbitrage: long AVB common against short 2.793 EQR common, unwinding on the August 17 close", "thesis": "The AVB-to-Vivmark conversion spread does not clear its own transaction costs: at the August 14 closes AVB trades 0.10% below the 2.793 EQR shares it converts into, so the residual is negative before commissions with one session left to run.", "conviction": 8, "catalyst": "Merger closes Monday August 17 2026; the combined company trades as VMRK from the August 18 open.", "invalidation": "AVB dislocating below roughly $182 on Monday, which would open a spread wide enough to pay for the round trip, or any credible report that closing conditions are not satisfied.", "logged": "2026-08-15", "article": "avalonbay-avb-merger-closes-vmrk-august-17", "entry": { "spot": 184.06, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "AVB $184.06 (+0.08%) and EQR $65.97 (unchanged) at the August 14 close per stockanalysis.com. 2.793 x $65.97 = $184.25, so AVB marks $0.19 (0.10%) below conversion value. Exchange ratio and the August 17 closing date are from the joint 8-K filed August 12. No implied move: the ratio is fixed, so this is a spread call rather than a volatility call." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.34, "spy_exit": 772.67 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": 184.06, "exit_date": "2026-08-17", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "merger closed as scheduled; graded at the unwind close named in the trade", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "avalonbay-avb-merger-closes-vmrk-august-17", "note": "AVB's final print closed unchanged at $184.06 (stockanalysis.com, Investing.com and Google Finance all agree, same $182.74-$185.62 day range) while EQR fell 3.50% to $63.66. 2.793 x $63.66 = $177.85 of conversion value sat under the $184.06 print, a $6.21 (3.5%) gap in AVB's favor, the opposite side of the 0.10% discount at entry and the kind of edge the thesis said would not be there. Graded a loss on the settled numbers. Caveat: no live bid-ask could be sourced to confirm the spread was tradable in size on a stock's last print before delisting, so this may overstate how capturable the gap actually was; the numbers themselves are cross-sourced and not in dispute." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": -0.4727310199139634, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "ntnx-straddle-pass-2026-08-15", "ticker": "NTNX", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long $67.50 straddle expiring September 18 2026 into the fiscal Q4 print", "thesis": "NTNX does not realise more than the roughly 14.9% of spot the September 18 straddle costs, because that contract prices 23 days of market-wide volatility containing Nvidia's print, Jackson Hole and PCE rather than the August 26 Nutanix event itself.", "conviction": 5, "catalyst": "Fiscal Q4 and full year 2026 earnings, August 26 2026 after the close, call at 4:30pm ET", "invalidation": "NTNX settling outside $56.69 to $76.53 at the September 18 expiry, which is the 14.9% band around the $66.61 entry.", "logged": "2026-08-15", "article": "nutanix-ntnx-q4-fy2026-earnings-preview-august-26", "entry": { "spot": 66.61, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 14.9, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Struck against the Aug 14 close of $66.61, down 1.98%. Implied move is the $67.50 straddle expiring 2026-09-18 per the site earnings-calendar dataset, read Aug 15 2026. No listed expiry isolates the Aug 26 print, so this prices the event plus three weeks; the pass is on that structure rather than on a clean earnings straddle." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.34, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "ntnx-long-shares-pass-2026-08-15", "ticker": "NTNX", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long NTNX common stock into the fiscal Q4 print", "thesis": "The revenue and margin beat is already priced, with consensus of $737.8m above the $735m guide midpoint after management beat the top of its own Q3 margin guide by 530bps, while Q4 free cash flow has to reach roughly $207m against $207.8m a year ago on 12.5% revenue growth. NTNX does not hold $66.61 through the print and the FY2027 guide.", "conviction": 6, "catalyst": "Fiscal Q4 and full year 2026 earnings, August 26 2026 after the close", "invalidation": "Q4 free cash flow printing above $217m, the top of what the full-year guide implies, or FY2027 ARR guidance implying growth at or above 15%. Either resolves one of the two lines this pass is built on.", "logged": "2026-08-15", "article": "nutanix-ntnx-q4-fy2026-earnings-preview-august-26", "entry": { "spot": 66.61, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 14.9, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Struck against the Aug 14 close of $66.61. Q4 free cash flow requirement of $196.9m to $216.9m derived by subtracting Q1-Q3 FY26 actuals ($174.5m, $191.4m, $197.2m = $563.1m) from the $760-780m full-year guide. Deliberately separate from the straddle row: this is a direction call, that one is a volatility call." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.34, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "ticker": "FN", "catalyst": "Fiscal Q4 and full year 2026 earnings, August 17 2026 after the close, call at 5:00pm ET", "logged": "2026-08-15", "article": "fabrinet-fn-q4-fy2026-earnings-preview-august-17", "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.34, "spy_exit": 765.72 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": -23.59, "exit_spot": 435.72, "exit_date": "2026-08-21", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "Fiscal Q4 2026 earnings, reported after the close August 17 2026", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-10-2026", "note": "Fabrinet closed the August 21 expiry at $435.72, down 23.59% from the $570.22 entry, roughly double the 12% the straddle would have needed and well past the $501.79 lower breakeven. Revenue of $1.3158bn and EPS of $4.10 were both records that beat guidance and consensus; the stock fell 19.4% the next session anyway on margin compression and capex concerns and never bounced. This pass is the week's biggest miss." }, "mark": null, "notes": "Fabrinet reported Q4 revenue of $1,315.8m (+45%) and non-GAAP EPS of $4.10, both above the top of guidance. Shares closed the Aug 17 regular session +4.97% at $598.58 ahead of the print, then fell 6.94% to $557.01 after hours. Tuesday's regular session went further: FN traded as low as $484.00 and sat at $488.63 as of 10:39am ET, down 18.37% from Monday's close and outside the $501.79-$638.65 straddle band on the downside, per stockanalysis.com. Graded at Tuesday's settled close per this ledger's own rule, not the intraday tick, so the row stays open.", "id": "fn-straddle-pass-2026-08-15", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long at-the-money straddle expiring August 21 2026 into the fiscal Q4 print", "thesis": "FN does not realise more than the roughly 12% of spot the August 21 straddle costs, because implied has exceeded realised at this name's last two prints (10.22% in February and 8.01% in May) despite both being beats.", "conviction": 6, "invalidation": "FN settling outside $501.79 to $638.65, the 12% band around the $570.22 entry.", "entry": { "spot": 570.22, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 12, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Struck against the Aug 14 2026 regular-session close of $570.22 per stockanalysis.com. Implied move of about 12% is Bloomberg options data compiled ahead of the Aug 17 print; no live chain price could be sourced this evening, so the straddle row is quoted against the implied move rather than a dealt premium. Prior reactions of -10.22% (Feb 2 2026) and -8.01% (May 4 2026) are next-session moves." }, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": -1.367957338279624, "alpha_pct": -22.222042661720376 } }, { "ticker": "FN", "catalyst": "Fiscal Q4 and full year 2026 earnings, August 17 2026 after the close, call at 5:00pm ET", "logged": "2026-08-15", "article": "fabrinet-fn-q4-fy2026-earnings-preview-august-17", "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.34, "spy_exit": 765.72 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": -23.59, "exit_spot": 435.72, "exit_date": "2026-08-21", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "Fiscal Q4 2026 earnings, reported after the close August 17 2026", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-10-2026", "note": "FN did not hold $570.22: it closed 23.59% below that level by August 21, the third straight beat-and-raise print at this name to sell off double digits (10.22% in February, 8.01% in May, now roughly 19-24% here). The pass on carrying shares through the print was correct, decisively." }, "mark": null, "notes": "Fiscal Q1 2027 guidance of $1.375-1.425bn straddles the $1.40bn invalidation level named at entry rather than clearing it outright. FN closed Aug 17 after-hours at $557.01, below the $570.22 entry, then fell further Tuesday to $488.63 as of 10:39am ET (-18.37% from Monday's close), per stockanalysis.com, on a free cash flow story the thesis didn't anticipate. Graded at Tuesday's settled close per this ledger's own rule, not the intraday tick, so the row stays open.", "id": "fn-long-shares-pass-2026-08-15", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long FN common stock carried through the fiscal Q4 print", "thesis": "FN does not hold $570.22 through the print. Consensus of about $3.85 sits in the top half of the company's own $3.72-$3.87 guide, so a beat on the reported quarter is close to the base case, and the last two beats produced next-session falls of 10.22% and 8.01%.", "conviction": 7, "invalidation": "Fiscal Q1 2027 revenue guidance above $1.40bn, or datacom revenue returning to sequential growth on the 800G hyperscale ramp. Either breaks the reason this pass exists.", "entry": { "spot": 570.22, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": 12, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Struck against the Aug 14 2026 regular-session close of $570.22 per stockanalysis.com. Implied move of about 12% is Bloomberg options data compiled ahead of the Aug 17 print; no live chain price could be sourced this evening, so the straddle row is quoted against the implied move rather than a dealt premium. Prior reactions of -10.22% (Feb 2 2026) and -8.01% (May 4 2026) are next-session moves." }, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": -1.367957338279624, "alpha_pct": -22.222042661720376 } }, { "ticker": "FN", "catalyst": "Fiscal Q4 and full year 2026 earnings, August 17 2026 after the close, call at 5:00pm ET", "logged": "2026-08-15", "article": "fabrinet-fn-q4-fy2026-earnings-preview-august-17", "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.34, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "pending", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "No trigger price was ever sourced for this row, so no entry is invented. For context: FN fell every session from the August 17 print through August 21, down about 27% from the pre-print close with no bounce yet, a large repricing if the trigger condition is anywhere near current levels." }, "mark": null, "notes": "FN traded as low as $484.00 and sat at $488.63 as of 10:39am ET Tuesday (-18.37% from Monday's close), more than 14% below the $570.22 pre-earnings anchor. Entry still waits for Tuesday's settled close rather than an intraday tick.", "id": "fn-long-shares-post-print-2026-08-15", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "long FN common stock entered after the print has repriced it, 12-month horizon", "thesis": "Fabrinet compounds revenue near 40% with telecom at a record $628m (+55%) and datacenter interconnect up 90%, and a forward P/E of 34.7 understates that once the event premium clears. FN trades above $570.22 twelve months from the post-print entry.", "conviction": 5, "invalidation": "Fiscal Q1 2027 guidance implying revenue growth below 25%, or a second consecutive quarter of sequential datacom decline.", "entry": { "spot": null, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": 12, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Pending. No entry is struck until the August 18 reaction session closes; the row exists so the call is on the record before the outcome is known. Deliberately opposed to fn-long-shares-pass-2026-08-15, which passes on carrying the event itself, and scored over a different window." }, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "zyme-long-shares-2026-08-16", "ticker": "ZYME", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "long ZYME common stock into the August 25 2026 PDUFA date", "thesis": "The FDA approves at least the better-tolerated doublet arm of zanidatamab in first-line HER2-positive gastroesophageal cancer, and ZYME re-rates toward the sell-side's already-bullish targets.", "conviction": 6, "catalyst": "FDA PDUFA target action date for zanidatamab (Ziihera) in 1L HER2+ GEA, August 25 2026", "invalidation": "An FDA complete response letter or request for additional data, which would also mean the trial's safety package was less clean than the published data suggests.", "logged": "2026-08-16", "article": "is-zymeworks-zyme-a-buy-before-fda-decision-august-25", "entry": { "spot": 25.12, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Spot is the Aug 14 2026 close per stockanalysis.com, down 2.48% from a $25.76 prior close. No live options chain could be sourced, so this call is logged as a stock-direction position with no implied move." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.01, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "zyme-options-pass-2026-08-16", "ticker": "ZYME", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Pass on any options structure into the August 25 2026 PDUFA date", "thesis": "No live ZYME option chain could be sourced this session, and pricing a binary regulatory event without a verified premium is worse than not pricing it at all.", "conviction": 5, "catalyst": "FDA PDUFA target action date for zanidatamab (Ziihera) in 1L HER2+ GEA, August 25 2026", "invalidation": "A sourced, verifiable ZYME option chain becoming available before August 25, which would make a priced structure possible.", "logged": "2026-08-16", "article": "is-zymeworks-zyme-a-buy-before-fda-decision-august-25", "entry": { "spot": 25.12, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Same Aug 14 2026 close as the stock-direction row logged alongside it. No live options chain could be sourced." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 776.01, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "tgt-long-straddle-pass-2026-08-13", "ticker": "TGT", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long at-the-money ~$154 straddle, August 21 2026 weekly expiry", "thesis": "Target's realised move on the August 19 print stays inside the roughly 8% of spot an at-the-money straddle costs, so buying volatility into the quarter does not pay.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Fiscal Q2 2026 earnings, August 19 2026 before the open", "invalidation": "A close beyond roughly $166.20 or $141.60 on the print, which is the straddle's breakeven pair at a cost of about 8% of spot.", "logged": "2026-08-13", "article": "target-tgt-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-19", "entry": { "spot": 153.9, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-13", "implied_move_pct": 6.5, "implied_move_high_pct": 6.9, "note": "No live option chain could be sourced, so the cost is derived from the 6.5-6.9% implied move rather than a traded price. Spot is the intraday level the preview was written against on August 13, before that session's $155.51 close. Row added to the ledger on August 19 from the published trade log; logged before conviction recording began on 2026-08-14, so no conviction is carried." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 777.88, "spy_exit": 765.72 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": 7.5, "exit_spot": 165.44, "exit_date": "2026-08-21", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "Q2 2026 earnings, reported before the open August 19 2026", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-10-2026", "note": "TGT closed the August 21 expiry at $165.44 against the straddle's own logged breakevens of $141.60 and $166.20, staying inside by 76 cents. Note this ledger's stored implied move (6.5-6.9%) understates the roughly 8% the piece's own breakevens imply; grading uses the breakeven prices as the more specific figure. Comp sales beat at +3.8% against a 2.4% consensus and full-year guidance was raised; ex-refund EPS of $2.46 beat by about 6%, a real but far smaller beat than the $4.11 headline (which included a $1.65 IEEPA tariff refund). Given the margin, this is a narrow win, not a clean one." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": -1.5632231192471813, "alpha_pct": 9.063223119247182 } }, { "id": "tgt-long-put-2026-08-13", "ticker": "TGT", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "long ~$150 put, September 18 2026 expiry", "thesis": "Target trades below $150 after the print, because full-year consensus of $8.48 sits two cents under the $8.50 top of the company's own guide and the stock enters at a 52-week high.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Fiscal Q2 2026 earnings, August 19 2026 before the open", "invalidation": "A guidance raise that clears consensus rather than matching it, which would give the rally the new information it needs.", "logged": "2026-08-13", "article": "target-tgt-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-19", "entry": { "spot": 153.9, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-13", "implied_move_pct": 6.5, "implied_move_high_pct": 6.9, "note": "No live option chain could be sourced, so no premium is recorded and the position is quoted against the implied move. Row added to the ledger on August 19 from the published trade log; logged before conviction recording began on 2026-08-14." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 777.88, "spy_exit": 765.72 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": 7.5, "exit_spot": 165.44, "exit_date": "2026-08-21", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "Q2 2026 earnings, reported before the open August 19 2026", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-10-2026", "note": "Target never traded near $150 after the print; it closed August 19 at $159.00 and kept climbing to $165.44 by August 21, $15 above the strike. The stated invalidation, a guidance raise clearing consensus, is exactly what happened: full-year sales growth guidance moved to about 5% from about 4%. Graded now even with a month left on the September 18 contract because the thesis's own invalidation condition has already fired and the strike is deep out of the money." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": -1.5632231192471813, "alpha_pct": 9.063223119247182 } }, { "id": "tgt-put-spread-2026-08-13", "ticker": "TGT", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "long ~$150 / ~$140 put spread, August 21 2026 weekly expiry", "thesis": "Target closes below $150 in the week of the print, leaving the $10-wide spread in the money.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Fiscal Q2 2026 earnings, August 19 2026 before the open", "invalidation": "A print that holds the stock above $150, which the sell-side panel's $140.90 average target says is already generous.", "logged": "2026-08-13", "article": "is-target-tgt-a-buy-before-earnings-august-19", "entry": { "spot": 155.51, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-13", "implied_move_pct": 6.5, "implied_move_high_pct": 6.9, "note": "No live option chain could be sourced, so no debit is recorded; the structure is quoted against the 6.5-6.9% implied move with a maximum value of $10. Row added to the ledger on August 19 from the published trade log; logged before conviction recording began on 2026-08-14." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 777.88, "spy_exit": 765.72 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": 6.38, "exit_spot": 165.44, "exit_date": "2026-08-21", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "Q2 2026 earnings, reported before the open August 19 2026", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-10-2026", "note": "TGT closed the August 21 weekly expiry at $165.44, far above both the $150 and $140 strikes. Both legs expired worthless; the spread's full premium is a loss." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": -1.5632231192471813, "alpha_pct": 7.943223119247181 } }, { "id": "tgt-long-shares-pass-2026-08-13", "ticker": "TGT", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "pass on TGT common stock at $155.51 into the August 19 print", "thesis": "Target is not worth buying at $155.51, roughly 10% above the sell-side's $140.90 average target on a Hold consensus, and a better entry arrives in the low $140s.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Fiscal Q2 2026 earnings, August 19 2026 before the open", "invalidation": "The stock running on the print, which the piece said in advance would make the pass a loss.", "logged": "2026-08-13", "article": "is-target-tgt-a-buy-before-earnings-august-19", "entry": { "spot": 155.51, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-13", "implied_move_pct": 6.5, "implied_move_high_pct": 6.9, "note": "Struck against the August 13 close of $155.51, set the same session as a $156.47 52-week high. Row added to the ledger on August 19 from the published trade log; logged before conviction recording began on 2026-08-14." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 777.88, "spy_exit": 765.72 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": 6.38, "exit_spot": 165.44, "exit_date": "2026-08-21", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "Q2 2026 earnings, reported before the open August 19 2026", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-10-2026", "note": "TGT ran 6.38% from the $155.51 pass point to $165.44, exactly the outcome the piece's own invalidation named ('the stock running on the print, which would make the pass a loss'). Comp sales beat and guidance was raised; the value case that looked attractive against a $140.90 average sell-side target was overtaken by the print itself." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": -1.5632231192471813, "alpha_pct": 7.943223119247181 } }, { "id": "adi-pass-any-options-2026-08-14", "ticker": "ADI", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "Any pre-print options position, August expiries", "thesis": "ADI's realised close-to-close move on the August 19 print stays too small to pay for a structure bought with no live chain to price it against; reported prior-quarter moves ran roughly 2-6%.", "conviction": 5, "catalyst": "Fiscal Q3 2026 earnings, August 19 2026 before the open (call at 10:00am ET)", "invalidation": "A realised move large enough that even an unpriced structure would have profited outright.", "logged": "2026-08-14", "article": "analog-devices-adi-fq3-2026-earnings-preview-august-19", "entry": { "spot": 381.17, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-13", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "No live option chain could be sourced, so no cost or implied move is quoted; the pass is scored against the realised move alone." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 777.88, "spy_exit": 769.06 }, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": -2.08, "exit_spot": 373.26, "exit_date": "2026-08-19", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "Fiscal Q3 2026 earnings, reported before the open August 19 2026", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-10-2026", "note": "ADI closed August 19 at $373.26, down 2.08% from the $381.17 entry, a move too small for either a bought call or a bought put to have clearly profited without a priced structure to grade against. Revenue of $4.02bn and EPS of $3.45 both beat, with a Q4 guide above Street numbers, but the stock sold off anyway on sector-wide valuation and rate concerns; a beat-and-raise producing a 2% decline is exactly the muted reaction the pass was betting on." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": -1.133850979585549, "alpha_pct": -0.9461490204144511 } }, { "id": "adi-conditional-long-triggered-2026-08-19", "ticker": "ADI", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "Conditional post-print long (shares or 1-2 month calls), triggered if the fiscal Q4 guide carried adjusted operating margin above 49.0%, struck off the August 19 open", "thesis": "A fiscal Q4 guide with adjusted operating margin above 49% signals the margin story stays intact and the stock re-rates higher over the following one to two months.", "conviction": 6, "catalyst": "Fiscal Q3 2026 earnings and fiscal Q4 guide, August 19 2026 before the open", "invalidation": "The stock fails to hold or extend the trigger-day entry over the following sessions, showing the beat-and-raise did not move the multiple.", "logged": "2026-08-14", "article": "analog-devices-adi-fq3-2026-earnings-preview-august-19", "entry": { "spot": 378.55, "session": "open", "date": "2026-08-19", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "The trigger fired: fiscal Q4 guide came in at 52.0% adjusted operating margin against the 49.0% threshold. Entry is the August 19 open, the price at which the conditional converts to a real row." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": 768.89, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": { "value": 373.09, "date": "2026-08-21", "label": "August 21 close $373.09, down 1.44% from the $378.55 trigger-day entry. Two sessions in on a stated one-to-two-month thesis; still too early to grade. A record quarter and a margin guide that beat by a point (52.0% vs. the 49.0% trigger) sold off anyway, which reads as the multiple having already priced above the company's own guide." }, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": -1.4423457931581174, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } } ] }, { "week_of": "2026-08-03", "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "notes": "Seeded 2026-08-14 from the site's first scorecard, which graded the whole backlog: every trade log from the week-ahead hub of August 3-7 plus the previews that spilled into the following week. Figures are transcribed from the published scorecard and its source articles, not re-researched. Calls this old carry no conviction score and no SPY benchmark; both are recorded from 2026-08-14 onward and are never backfilled. Earlier calls (July) are not in the ledger: the August 1 audit found only one July piece had published an entry price, so those calls cannot be reconstructed to this schema.", "calls": [ { "id": "pltr-long-straddle-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "PLTR", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long straddle into the print", "thesis": "The realised move stays close enough to the 10-15% implied that buying the straddle at $125.65 does not pay.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 3 after the close", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-03", "article": "palantir-pltr-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-3", "entry": { "spot": 125.65, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": 10, "implied_move_high_pct": 15, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": 29.4, "exit_spot": 162.66, "exit_date": "2026-08-04", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "reaction session close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "Revenue grew 93% and the full-year guide jumped to $8.15-8.16bn. The straddle would have paid for itself more than twice over. The week's biggest single miss." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "pltr-short-premium-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "PLTR", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "short premium into the print (any structure)", "thesis": "Selling premium into the print risks a gap beyond the 10-15% implied; both tails are live with consensus above the guide.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 3 after the close", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-03", "article": "palantir-pltr-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-3", "entry": { "spot": 125.65, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": 10, "implied_move_high_pct": 15, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": 29.4, "exit_spot": 162.66, "exit_date": "2026-08-04", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "reaction session close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "A premium seller at 10-15% implied would have been blown through by the 29.4% move." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "pltr-postprint-long-2026-08-03", "ticker": "PLTR", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "conditional post-print long (shares or 1-2 month calls)", "thesis": "If the full-year guide reaches roughly $7.83bn, the raise sustains a move beyond the reaction session; entry struck off the Aug 4 open.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings guide, Aug 3 after the close", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-03", "article": "palantir-pltr-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-3", "entry": { "spot": null, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Condition triggered (guide landed at $8.15-8.16bn); the Aug 4 open entry has not been sourced." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "pending", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "Carries to the next scorecard once an entry price is sourced rather than getting an invented one." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "amd-long-straddle-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "AMD", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long straddle into the print", "thesis": "The realised move stays inside the 12.3% implied; a straddle at $484.64 does not cover its premium.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 4 after the close", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "amd-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-4", "entry": { "spot": 484.64, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": 12.3, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": -0.3, "exit_spot": 483.36, "exit_date": "2026-08-07", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "week close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "Essentially flat from the $484.64 spot to Friday's close, well inside implied." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "amd-short-premium-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "AMD", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "short premium into the print (any structure)", "thesis": "Not worth selling the 12.3% implied; the print can clear it.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 4 after the close", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "amd-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-4", "entry": { "spot": 484.64, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": 12.3, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": -0.3, "exit_spot": 483.36, "exit_date": "2026-08-07", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "week close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "Selling premium here would have been the easy trade; the move stayed essentially flat." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "amd-conditional-long-2026-08-03", "ticker": "AMD", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "conditional post-print long (proxy entry)", "thesis": "The data-center print supports a hold beyond the reaction session; tracked from a ~$482.05 proxy entry of Aug 5.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 4 after the close", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "amd-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-4", "entry": { "spot": 482.05, "session": null, "date": "2026-08-05", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Approximate proxy entry, as logged in the scorecard's open-positions table." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": { "value": 483.36, "date": "2026-08-07", "label": "Aug 7 close", "note": "Roughly flat." }, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": 0.27175604190436964, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "shop-long-straddle-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SHOP", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long straddle into the print", "thesis": "The realised move stays inside the ~12.5% implied; a straddle at the $126.88 close does not pay.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 5", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "shopify-shop-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-5", "entry": { "spot": 126.88, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": 12.5, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "The preview originally quoted ~$117.6; the site's own correction settled the Aug 3 close at $126.88." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": 13.7, "exit_spot": 144.24, "exit_date": "2026-08-05", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "reaction session close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "Cleared the implied even on the conservative reading." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "shop-short-premium-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SHOP", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "short premium into the print (any structure)", "thesis": "Not worth selling the ~12.5% implied; the May precedent was a 16% move.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 5", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "shopify-shop-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-5", "entry": { "spot": 126.88, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": 12.5, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": 13.7, "exit_spot": 144.24, "exit_date": "2026-08-05", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "reaction session close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "The 13.7% move blew through the implied; a premium seller would have lost." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "shop-postprint-long-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SHOP", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "conditional post-print long (shares or 1-2 month calls)", "thesis": "If gross profit growth lands at the top of guide with revenue in line or better, the move extends; entry struck off the Aug 5 open reaction.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 5", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "shopify-shop-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-5", "entry": { "spot": null, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Condition triggered; the post-print entry has not been sourced." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "pending", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "Carries to the next scorecard once an entry price is sourced." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "ddog-long-straddle-2026-08-03", "ticker": "DDOG", "category": "volatility", "stance": "long", "structure": "long straddle into the print", "thesis": "The realised move beats the 13% implied; recent realised moves in this name have been clearing implied.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 6", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "datadog-ddog-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-6", "entry": { "spot": 273.6, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": 13, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "The preview's log briefly carried a stale $254.79 spot; corrected in place to the actual Aug 3 close." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": 17, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": "reaction move settled", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "Realised move near 17% against 13% implied, approximate. Second straight quarter this exact setup rewarded buying volatility. One of the week's two genuine buy calls." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": 30.76923076923077, "return_basis": "modeled", "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "ddog-short-premium-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "DDOG", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "short premium into the print (any structure)", "thesis": "Do not sell the 13% implied; the realised move can clear it.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 6", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "datadog-ddog-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-6", "entry": { "spot": 273.6, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": 13, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": 17, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": "reaction move settled", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "The ~17% realised move would have blown through a seller at 13% implied." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "ttd-long-straddle-2026-08-03", "ticker": "TTD", "category": "volatility", "stance": "long", "structure": "long straddle into the print", "thesis": "The realised move beats the 13% implied in either direction.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 6", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "trade-desk-ttd-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-6", "entry": { "spot": 18.3, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": 13, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": -24.6, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": "reaction move settled", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "A 24.6% collapse after a soft Q3 guide cleared the 13% implied. One of the week's two genuine buy calls." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": 89.23076923076924, "return_basis": "modeled", "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "ttd-short-premium-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "TTD", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "short premium into the print (any structure)", "thesis": "Do not sell the 13% implied; the realised move can clear it.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 6", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "trade-desk-ttd-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-6", "entry": { "spot": 18.3, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": 13, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": -24.6, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": "reaction move settled", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "The 24.6% drop would have crushed a premium seller." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "ttwo-long-straddle-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "TTWO", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long straddle into the print", "thesis": "The realised move stays inside the 7.7% implied; the straddle does not pay.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Earnings, Aug 7", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-03", "article": "take-two-ttwo-earnings-preview-august-7-gta-6-preorders", "entry": { "spot": 242.92, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": 7.7, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Spot as logged in the preview; session not recorded at the time." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": 1.5, "exit_spot": 246.5, "exit_date": "2026-08-07", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "week close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "+1.5% from the logged spot (+6% from the last pre-print close), inside the 7.7% implied either way." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "ttwo-short-premium-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "TTWO", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "short premium into the print (any structure)", "thesis": "Not worth selling the 7.7% implied into a GTA 6 preorder catalyst.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Earnings, Aug 7", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-03", "article": "take-two-ttwo-earnings-preview-august-7-gta-6-preorders", "entry": { "spot": 242.92, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": 7.7, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": 1.5, "exit_spot": 246.5, "exit_date": "2026-08-07", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "week close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "The move stayed inside implied; a premium seller would have collected." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "vst-any-position-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "VST", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "any pre-print options position", "thesis": "Nothing about the setup justifies paying or selling the 6.4% implied; stand aside.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 7", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "vistra-vst-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-7", "entry": { "spot": 141.38, "session": "close", "date": "2026-07-31", "implied_move_pct": 6.4, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "The preview dated this spot Aug 3; the dollar figure was actually the prior session's (Jul 31) close. Corrected in the scorecard." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": -0.6, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": "reaction move settled", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "Reiterated guidance, -0.6% move, no trade to regret." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "oklo-any-position-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "OKLO", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "any pre-print position", "thesis": "The ~13% implied is not worth paying or selling around the reactor and earnings catalysts; stand aside.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Groves reactor criticality plus Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 7", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "oklo-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-7", "entry": { "spot": 41.22, "session": "close", "date": "2026-07-31", "implied_move_pct": 13, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "The preview dated this spot Aug 3; the dollar figure was actually the prior session's (Jul 31) close. Corrected in the scorecard." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": 17.5, "exit_spot": 48.42, "exit_date": "2026-08-07", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "week close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "The reactor going critical moved the stock about 4% on the day; the real move came Friday with earnings and a reactor-sales update. The original write-up blamed the wrong day and the wrong size; corrected in the scorecard." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "cava-any-position-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "CAVA", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "any pre-print position", "thesis": "The realised move stays inside the 11-14% implied; no position earns its risk.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 11", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "cava-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-11", "entry": { "spot": 65.23, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": 11, "implied_move_high_pct": 14, "note": "Spot as logged in the preview; session not recorded at the time." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": 6.5, "exit_spot": 69.47, "exit_date": "2026-08-12", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "reaction session close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "Corrected to a win in the scorecard: the preview had marked it a loss off a +15.3% intraday quote. Close-to-close from the $60.81 pre-print close was +14.2%, a near miss at worst; from the logged $65.23 spot it was +6.5%, comfortably inside implied." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "uber-long-straddle-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "UBER", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long straddle into the print", "thesis": "The realised move stays inside the 7-8% implied; the straddle does not pay.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 5", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "uber-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-5", "entry": { "spot": 71.61, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": 7, "implied_move_high_pct": 8, "note": "Spot as logged in the preview; session not recorded at the time." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": -4.8, "exit_spot": 68.18, "exit_date": "2026-08-05", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "reaction session close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "Gross bookings of $58bn cleared the top of guidance and the stock still only moved -4.8%, inside implied." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "uber-short-premium-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "UBER", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "short premium into the print (any structure)", "thesis": "Not worth selling the 7-8% implied into the print.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 5", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "uber-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-5", "entry": { "spot": 71.61, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": 7, "implied_move_high_pct": 8, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": -4.8, "exit_spot": 68.18, "exit_date": "2026-08-05", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "reaction session close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "The move stayed inside implied; a premium seller would have collected." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "dis-any-position-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "DIS", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "any pre-print options position", "thesis": "The realised move stays inside the ~6% implied; no position earns its risk.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "FQ3 2026 earnings, Aug 5", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "disney-dis-q3-fy2026-earnings-preview-august-5", "entry": { "spot": 98.14, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": 6, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Implied from a single source, as flagged in the preview." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": 3.7, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": "2026-08-05", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "reaction session close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "Reiterated guidance; the move stayed inside implied." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "dis-postprint-long-2026-08-03", "ticker": "DIS", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "conditional post-print long (shares or 1-2 month calls)", "thesis": "If the FY adjusted EPS growth guide holds at ~12%+ with parks operating income up, the print supports a long; entry struck off the Aug 5 open reaction.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "FQ3 2026 earnings, Aug 5", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "disney-dis-q3-fy2026-earnings-preview-august-5", "entry": { "spot": null, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Condition triggered; the post-print entry has not been sourced." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "pending", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "Carries to the next scorecard once an entry price is sourced." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "lly-any-position-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "LLY", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "any pre-print options position", "thesis": "The realised move stays inside the ~7% implied; no position earns its risk.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 5", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "eli-lilly-lly-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-5", "entry": { "spot": 1121.36, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": 6.9, "implied_move_high_pct": 7.4, "note": "Quoted 6.9-7.4% across sources; the scorecard graded against ~7%." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": 4.5, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": "reaction move settled", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "Approximately +4.5%, inside implied." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "lly-postprint-long-2026-08-03", "ticker": "LLY", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "conditional post-print long (shares or defined-risk call spread)", "thesis": "If FY guidance is raised, the print supports a long; entry struck off the Aug 5 open reaction.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 5", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "eli-lilly-lly-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-5", "entry": { "spot": null, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Condition triggered; the post-print entry has not been sourced." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "pending", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "Carries to the next scorecard once an entry price is sourced." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "spcx-long-put-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SPCX", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long put into the unlock week", "thesis": "The lockup expiry does not force the stock down hard enough to pay for downside; do not own puts.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Lockup expiry plus first earnings print, week of Aug 3", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-03", "article": "spacex-spcx-first-earnings-preview-august-4", "entry": { "spot": 108.37, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": 12.5, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Weekly implied; spot as logged across the preview and the lockup piece." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": 22.8, "exit_spot": 133.11, "exit_date": "2026-08-07", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "week close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "The stock rallied 22.8% through the unlock and the first print; puts would have been destroyed." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "spcx-long-straddle-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SPCX", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long straddle into the unlock week", "thesis": "The realised move stays inside the 12.5% weekly implied; the straddle does not pay.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Lockup expiry plus first earnings print, week of Aug 3", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-03", "article": "spacex-spcx-first-earnings-preview-august-4", "entry": { "spot": 108.37, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": 12.5, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": 22.8, "exit_spot": 133.11, "exit_date": "2026-08-07", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "week close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "An unlock and a first earnings print stacked on the same week blew through the weekly implied." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "spcx-shares-long-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SPCX", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "shares, post-unlock momentum long", "thesis": "With the unlock absorbed and the first print in, the re-rate continues from the $114.92 Aug 6 close.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Post-unlock, post-print continuation", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-07", "article": "why-is-spacex-spcx-stock-up-after-lockup-expiry", "entry": { "spot": 114.92, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-06", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": { "value": 141.29, "date": "2026-08-13", "label": "Aug 13 close", "note": null }, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": 22.946397493908787, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "smci-long-straddle-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SMCI", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long straddle into the print", "thesis": "The realised move stays inside the 18% implied; the straddle at $28.40 does not pay.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "FQ4 2026 earnings, Aug 11", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "super-micro-smci-fq4-2026-earnings-preview-august-11", "entry": { "spot": 28.4, "session": "close", "date": null, "implied_move_pct": 18, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": 32.4, "exit_spot": 37.61, "exit_date": "2026-08-12", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "settled close after the print", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "Corrected grade: marked a win in real time off an early 6-9% after-hours read, then the stock kept running to a 32.4% close-to-close gain. Grading a straddle off the first after-hours tick instead of the settled close is exactly what the trade-log rules exist to prevent." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "smci-short-premium-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SMCI", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "short premium into the print (any structure)", "thesis": "Do not sell the 18% implied; the print can clear it.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "FQ4 2026 earnings, Aug 11", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "super-micro-smci-fq4-2026-earnings-preview-august-11", "entry": { "spot": 28.4, "session": "close", "date": null, "implied_move_pct": 18, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": 32.4, "exit_spot": 37.61, "exit_date": "2026-08-12", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "settled close after the print", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "A seller at 18% implied against a 32% realised move would have been blown out." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "smci-shares-long-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SMCI", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "shares, post-print long", "thesis": "Long from $34.99 at the Aug 12 open; the post-print move extends rather than fades.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "FQ4 2026 earnings follow-through", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-12", "article": "super-micro-smci-fq4-2026-earnings-preview-august-11", "entry": { "spot": 34.99, "session": "open", "date": "2026-08-12", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": { "value": 39.16, "date": "2026-08-13", "label": "Aug 13 close", "note": null }, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": 11.917690768791056, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "se-long-straddle-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SE", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long straddle into the print", "thesis": "The realised move stays inside the 19.1% implied; the straddle does not pay.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 11", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-06", "article": "sea-limited-se-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-11", "entry": { "spot": 114.91, "session": "close", "date": null, "implied_move_pct": 19.1, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": 14.5, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": "2026-08-11", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "reaction session close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "+14.5% against a 19.1% implied; a big move that still stayed inside what the options priced." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "se-short-premium-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SE", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "short premium into the print (any structure)", "thesis": "Do not sell the 19.1% implied; the print can clear even a wide number.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 11", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-06", "article": "sea-limited-se-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-11", "entry": { "spot": 114.91, "session": "close", "date": null, "implied_move_pct": 19.1, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": 14.5, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": "2026-08-11", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "reaction session close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "A premium seller collected clean; the move stayed inside implied." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "se-shares-long-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SE", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "shares, post-print long", "thesis": "Long from the $114.91 entry close; the print's strength carries the stock beyond the reaction.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings follow-through", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-06", "article": "sea-limited-se-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-11", "entry": { "spot": 114.91, "session": "close", "date": null, "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Entry close as logged in the scorecard's open-positions table." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": { "value": 128.11, "date": "2026-08-12", "label": "Aug 12 close", "note": null }, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": 11.487250892002443, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "mu-long-puts-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "MU", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long puts on the gap, Aug 7 weekly", "thesis": "The gap does not extend into a third straight down day big enough to pay for at-the-money puts.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Memory selloff, Aug 3 gap down", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-03", "article": "why-is-micron-mu-stock-down-today-august-3-2026", "entry": { "spot": 801, "session": "premarket", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Premarket 8:00am ET quote; directional call, no implied move logged." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": 9.6, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": "2026-08-07", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "week close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "The stock rallied 9.6% into Friday instead of falling further; the puts would have expired worthless." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "mu-premium-selling-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "MU", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "selling premium (covered call or cash-secured put), any August expiry", "thesis": "Do not sell MU premium into a tape that just printed 16% and 26% sessions in the memory complex.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Memory selloff, Aug 3 gap down", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-03", "article": "why-is-micron-mu-stock-down-today-august-3-2026", "entry": { "spot": 801, "session": "premarket", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "unscorable", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "Generic structure with no strike or expiry pinned and no implied move logged; the scorecard left it out of the hit rate rather than forcing a grade." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "sndk-strangle-threshold-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SNDK", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long strangle into the Aug 5 print, Aug 7 weekly, first strikes either side of spot", "thesis": "At an implied near 25% the strangle is a pass; under 18% it is worth taking. The move either clears the price paid or it does not.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "SNDK Q4 FY2026 earnings, Aug 5", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-03", "article": "why-is-micron-mu-stock-down-today-august-3-2026", "entry": { "spot": 1214.83, "session": "close", "date": "2026-07-31", "implied_move_pct": 17.5, "implied_move_high_pct": 25, "note": "Implied reported at 17.5% (Benzinga) and ~25% (TipRanks); never resolved." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "unscorable", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "The logged implied move was disputed between 17.5% and 25% with no way to resolve it, so a threshold call keyed to that number cannot be graded." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "mu-puts-selling-pass-2026-07-16", "ticker": "MU", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "selling MU puts (suspended), any near-dated expiry", "thesis": "Put selling stays suspended while the CXMT commodity-DRAM scare can keep the slide going.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "CXMT supply threat", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-07-16", "article": "mu-below-900-cxmt-china-dram-threat", "entry": { "spot": 903, "session": "close", "date": "2026-07-15", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Approximate; the trade log was added Aug 4, after the piece, which predates the log rule." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "unscorable", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "Generic structure with no strike or expiry pinned; the scorecard left it out of the hit rate rather than forcing a grade." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "mu-sndk-pair-2026-07-16", "ticker": "MU", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "pair: MU puts against long SNDK", "thesis": "SNDK's shortage exposure beats MU's commodity exposure if the DRAM scare is real.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "CXMT supply threat", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-07-16", "article": "mu-below-900-cxmt-china-dram-threat", "entry": { "spot": null, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Nothing was logged: no strikes, no expiry, no prices." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "unscorable", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "Marked ungradeable in the article's own August 4 review: nothing was logged to grade against." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "googl-calls-chase-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "GOOGL", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "chasing calls on the DeepMind-shakeup dip", "thesis": "The dip is not a call-buying setup; any bounce stays too small to cover the premium.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "DeepMind leadership shakeup, Aug 5", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-05", "article": "why-is-google-googl-stock-down-today-deepmind-shakeup", "entry": { "spot": 379.72, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-05", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": -9.5, "exit_spot": 343.8, "exit_date": "2026-08-11", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "graded at the Aug 11 close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "The stock kept falling to $343.80 by Aug 11; calls would have been destroyed." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "googl-short-premium-zone-2026-08-03", "ticker": "GOOGL", "category": "volatility", "stance": "short", "structure": "short premium, $366-381 strike zone", "thesis": "GOOGL stays inside the $366-381 zone while the shakeup noise settles.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "DeepMind leadership shakeup, Aug 5", "invalidation": "A close below $366 breaks the range and the position.", "logged": "2026-08-05", "article": "why-is-google-googl-stock-down-today-deepmind-shakeup", "entry": { "spot": 379.72, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-05", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": -9.5, "exit_spot": 343.8, "exit_date": "2026-08-11", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "range breached", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "The stock closed the week at $354.30 and fell to $343.80 by Aug 11, a full 9.5% below the zone. The week's one structural loss: a defined range only protects the seller while price stays inside it. No premium was logged, so no return on risk is computable." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "meta-calls-chase-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "META", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "chasing calls into the gap", "thesis": "The Iran-driven gap does not extend far enough to cover call premium; do not chase.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Iran-driven Monday gap, Aug 3", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-03", "article": "why-is-meta-meta-stock-up-today-august-3-2026", "entry": { "spot": 580, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Approximate intraday quote on the gap; the baseline is a rough read, not a close." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": 2, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": "2026-08-07", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "week close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "Follow-through of roughly 2% by Friday, approximate; not enough to cover premium." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "meta-short-premium-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "META", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "short premium into the gap (any structure)", "thesis": "Do not sell premium into an Iran-driven gap; the tail is live.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Iran-driven Monday gap, Aug 3", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-03", "article": "why-is-meta-meta-stock-up-today-august-3-2026", "entry": { "spot": 580, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Approximate intraday quote on the gap." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": 2, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": "2026-08-07", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "week close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "Follow-through was only around 2%, small enough that a premium seller would have collected. The margin is approximate because the baseline is a rough intraday read; the direction of the grade is not." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "dkng-long-straddle-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "DKNG", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long straddle into the print", "thesis": "The realised move stays inside the ~9% implied; the straddle does not pay.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 6", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "draftkings-dkng-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-6", "entry": { "spot": 22.17, "session": "close", "date": null, "implied_move_pct": 9, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Last pre-print close as graded in the scorecard; implied quotes conflicted (8.7-9.5%), low confidence." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": 8.4, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": "earnings-day move", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "A narrow win: +8.4% against ~9% implied, a near miss that still favored standing aside from the straddle." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "dkng-short-premium-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "DKNG", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "short premium into the print (any structure)", "thesis": "Do not sell the ~9% implied; the 8-quarter median realised move is 12.6%.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 6", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "draftkings-dkng-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-6", "entry": { "spot": 22.17, "session": "close", "date": null, "implied_move_pct": 9, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": 8.4, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": "earnings-day move", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "A narrow loss: the move stayed just inside implied, so the seller would have collected." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "dkng-postcall-long-2026-08-03", "ticker": "DKNG", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "conditional post-call long (shares or 1-2 month calls)", "thesis": "If FY guidance holds and Predictions discloses credible volume, the print supports a long struck after the Aug 7 call.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings call", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "draftkings-dkng-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-6", "entry": { "spot": null, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "unscorable", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "The site's own coverage still calls the trigger's outcome unverified, so whether this row ever became live cannot be established." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "app-long-straddle-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "APP", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long straddle into the print", "thesis": "The realised move stays inside the 12-13% implied; the straddle at $406.16 does not pay.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 5", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "applovin-app-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-5", "entry": { "spot": 406.16, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": 12, "implied_move_high_pct": 13, "note": "Spot as logged in the preview; session not recorded at the time." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": -17.4, "exit_spot": 335.67, "exit_date": "2026-08-06", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "settled close after the print", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "Thursday's regular close was worse than the after-hours print originally quoted; the move cleared implied on the downside." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "app-short-premium-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "APP", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "short premium into the print (any structure)", "thesis": "Do not sell the 12-13% implied; the print can clear it.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 5", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "applovin-app-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-5", "entry": { "spot": 406.16, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": 12, "implied_move_high_pct": 13, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": -17.4, "exit_spot": 335.67, "exit_date": "2026-08-06", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "settled close after the print", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "The -17.4% move would have blown through a premium seller." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "skhy-long-calls-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SKHY", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "long calls into the shareholder-return catalyst", "thesis": "The shareholder-return announcement is not close enough to certain to pay for calls; wait.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Expected shareholder-return announcement, Aug 4", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-03", "article": "skhy-august-4-shareholder-return-catalyst-explained", "entry": { "spot": 143.73, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "No implied move was ever logged; graded on direction alone." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": 15.3, "exit_spot": 165.67, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": "graded at scorecard time", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "The ADR ran +15.3% while the announcement the piece was watching for still had not been made. Right about the catalyst, wrong about the stock." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "skhy-short-puts-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SKHY", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "short puts into the shareholder-return catalyst", "thesis": "Not worth being short puts ahead of an announcement that may not come.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Expected shareholder-return announcement, Aug 4", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-03", "article": "skhy-august-4-shareholder-return-catalyst-explained", "entry": { "spot": 143.73, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "No implied move was ever logged; graded on direction alone." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "loss", "thesis_correct": false, "realized_move_pct": 15.3, "exit_spot": 165.67, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": "graded at scorecard time", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "A put seller would have collected the full premium on the +15.3% run. Two passes, one direction, two losses." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "sndk-dip-buy-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SNDK", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "buying the extended-hours dip, immediately post-print", "thesis": "The extended-hours dip (roughly $1,283-1,296) is not the low; the next regular close lands below the dip-buy zone.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q4 FY2026 earnings, Aug 5 after the close", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-05", "article": "why-is-sandisk-sndk-stock-down-after-earnings", "entry": { "spot": 1350.5, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-05", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Aug 5 regular close; extended-hours reports ran 4-5% below it." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "scored", "call_result": "win", "thesis_correct": true, "realized_move_pct": -6.8, "exit_spot": 1258.58, "exit_date": "2026-08-06", "exit_session": "close", "exit_reason": "graded against the Aug 6 close", "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": "options-scorecard-august-3-2026", "note": "The Aug 6 close of $1,258.58 landed below the extended-hours entry zone, so not buying the dip won." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "sndk-premium-selling-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SNDK", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "selling premium into the post-print collapse in implied, Aug or Sep expiry", "thesis": "Selling the vol crush is the reflex trade after every print, and realised moves in memory kept beating implied in July, which is when that reflex is most expensive.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q4 FY2026 earnings aftermath", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-05", "article": "why-is-sandisk-sndk-stock-down-after-earnings", "entry": { "spot": 1350.5, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-05", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": null }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "unscorable", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "Generic structure with no strike or expiry pinned; the scorecard left it out of the hit rate rather than forcing a grade." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "sndk-confirmation-calls-2026-08-03", "ticker": "SNDK", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "two-month confirmation calls, Oct expiry, struck off the Aug 6 open", "thesis": "The guide confirms the shortage, so paying up a few percent after the fact removes the coin flip and still captures the re-rate.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q4 FY2026 guide, confirmed Aug 5 after the close", "invalidation": "Fiscal Q1 revenue guided to accelerate again, or margins guided below 80%, at the Aug 13 Investor Day.", "logged": "2026-08-05", "article": "why-is-sandisk-sndk-stock-down-after-earnings", "entry": { "spot": 1258.58, "session": "open", "date": "2026-08-06", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Underlying near $1,258.58 at the Aug 6 strike; the option leg was never priced from a live chain." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": null }, "mark": { "value": 1528.11, "date": "2026-08-13", "label": "underlying, Aug 13 close", "note": "Underlying +21.4%; the option leg has no live mark." }, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": 21.415404662397307, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "abnb-any-position-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "ABNB", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "any pre-print options position", "thesis": "Nothing about the setup justifies a pre-print options position; stand aside.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 6", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "airbnb-abnb-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-6", "entry": { "spot": 151.6, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Approximate close; no implied move was sourced." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "unscorable", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "No implied move was logged, so a pass on an options position has nothing to be graded against." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "abnb-postprint-long-2026-08-03", "ticker": "ABNB", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "conditional post-print long (shares or 1-2 month calls)", "thesis": "If EPS clears ~$1.20 with revenue in the guided band, the print supports a long struck off the Aug 7 open.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 6", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "airbnb-abnb-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-6", "entry": { "spot": null, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Condition triggered; the Aug 7 open entry has not been sourced." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "pending", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "Carries to the next scorecard once an entry price is sourced." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "crcl-directional-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "CRCL", "category": "options-direction", "stance": "pass", "structure": "any directional pre-print position", "thesis": "Direction is not knowable from the setup; no directional position into the print.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 5", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-03", "article": "circle-crcl-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-5", "entry": { "spot": 61.59, "session": "intraday", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "No implied move sourced; IV30 quoted near 95%." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "unscorable", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "No implied move number was ever logged (only an IV30 quote), so the pass cannot be graded against implied." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "crcl-postprint-long-2026-08-03", "ticker": "CRCL", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "conditional post-print long", "thesis": "If circulation grew and distribution costs held flat or better, the print supports a long struck after the call.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings, Aug 5", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-03", "article": "circle-crcl-q2-2026-earnings-preview-august-5", "entry": { "spot": null, "session": null, "date": null, "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Condition triggered; the post-call entry has not been sourced." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "pending", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "Carries to the next scorecard once an entry price is sourced." }, "mark": null, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": null, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "amat-any-position-pass-2026-08-03", "ticker": "AMAT", "category": "volatility", "stance": "pass", "structure": "any pre-print options position", "thesis": "Nothing about the setup justifies a pre-print options position; stand aside.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "FQ3 2026 earnings, Aug 13 after the close", "invalidation": null, "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "applied-materials-amat-fq3-2026-earnings-preview-august-13", "entry": { "spot": 508, "session": "close", "date": "2026-08-03", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Approximate close; no implied move was sourced." }, "benchmark": null, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "Written against roughly $508 on Aug 3. AMAT closed Aug 14 at $507.18, within about a dollar of the level the pass was struck at, so standing aside through the print cost and made close to nothing. Still open rather than scored: a scored row must name the scorecard that graded it." }, "mark": { "value": 507.18, "date": "2026-08-14", "label": "Aug 14 2026 close, $507.18 per stockanalysis.com quote page at 4:00pm ET; the same site's history table shows $506.00 and the roughly $1 gap is unreconciled" }, "notes": null, "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": -0.16141732283464494, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } }, { "id": "amat-post-print-long-2026-08-04", "ticker": "AMAT", "category": "stock-direction", "stance": "long", "structure": "post-print long (shares or 1-2 month calls), struck off the August 14 2026 open", "thesis": "If the FQ4 guide confirms the 30%-plus semiconductor systems trajectory, the memory capex cycle is intact and AMAT is worth owning from the post-print open rather than into the print.", "conviction": null, "catalyst": "FQ3 2026 earnings, August 13 2026 after the close", "invalidation": "An FQ4 guide that failed to confirm the 30%-plus systems trajectory, which would have left the row untriggered.", "logged": "2026-08-04", "article": "applied-materials-amat-fq3-2026-earnings-preview-august-13", "entry": { "spot": 499.4, "session": "open", "date": "2026-08-14", "implied_move_pct": null, "implied_move_high_pct": null, "note": "Trigger fired: FQ4 guided to $10.25bn plus or minus $500m against a Street figure near $9.54bn, confirming the systems trajectory. Struck at the Aug 14 open of $499.40 per the stockanalysis.com history table; Yahoo Finance shows $498.44 for the same open and the roughly $1 difference is unreconciled." }, "benchmark": { "spy_entry": null, "spy_exit": null }, "resolution": { "status": "open", "call_result": null, "thesis_correct": null, "realized_move_pct": null, "exit_spot": null, "exit_date": null, "exit_session": null, "exit_reason": null, "return_on_risk_pct": null, "scorecard_article": null, "note": "Triggered and running: struck at the $499.40 open, closed the same session at $507.18, about 1.6% ahead. Graded in a later scorecard." }, "mark": { "value": 507.18, "date": "2026-08-14", "label": "Aug 14 2026 close, $507.18 per stockanalysis.com quote page at 4:00pm ET; the same site's history table shows $506.00 and the roughly $1 gap is unreconciled" }, "notes": "Row 2 of the preview's trade log, added to the ledger on 2026-08-14 when its trigger fired and the entry could be sourced. Conviction is null because the call was logged on 2026-08-04, before conviction recording began on 2026-08-14.", "derived": { "return_on_risk_pct": null, "return_basis": null, "unrealized_pct": 1.557869443332005, "spy_return_pct": null, "alpha_pct": null } } ] } ] }