AI Compute Deal Ledger · Methodology · Updated 2026-08-21
Methodology
The ledger currently records 43 deals worth $880B in binding base-term value. This page is the contract behind those numbers: what qualifies, how status is graded, why the totals refuse to double count, and how to cite the data.
What Counts as a Deal
A deal enters the ledger when all four hold:
- At least one party is publicly traded, a hyperscaler subsidiary, or a private company at obvious scale (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI class).
- The subject is AI compute or AI data center capacity: GPU cloud contracts, IT-load leases for AI campuses, chip or server purchase commitments, AI data center build contracts, financing backstops, or equity investments explicitly tied to compute supply.
- The headline value is disclosed or computable at $100M or more, or the capacity is 50 MW or more when no dollar value is disclosed.
- Two independent sources exist, and at least one is primary (a filing, press release or shareholder letter) or tier-1 (Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, WSJ, FT). Aggregator sites never establish a row on their own.
Excluded: generic enterprise cloud contracts with no AI or capacity specifics, internal capex programs with no counterparty, and land purchases with no IT-load commitment.
Status Grades
- Binding: a signed, definitive agreement per the parties themselves.
- LOI / MOU: a letter of intent or memorandum, announced by the parties but not definitive. The Nvidia-OpenAI $100B partnership is the canonical example.
- Framework: announced umbrella agreements whose commercial terms are not yet contracted.
- Reported: credible tier-1 reporting of talks or unsigned terms, denied by nobody, confirmed by nobody.
- Terminated / Superseded: dead rows stay visible, they never vanish.
Only binding deals enter the headline totals. Everything else is displayed, labeled, and excluded.
Why the Totals Refuse to Double Count
- Expansion chains. When a second lease lands on the same campus with the same counterparty, it is a separate row linked to its parent. Each row is its own incremental contract, so summing rows is safe, and "campus total" restatements are never stored as deals.
- Snapshot rows. A company restating "$36B of total contracted backlog" or "more than $60B of orders received" is disclosing a snapshot that overlaps its own discrete deals. The same applies to program envelopes like Stargate's announced $500B, whose discrete contracts earn their own rows as they sign. Snapshot rows (basis: total backlog, order intake or program envelope) appear in the table, labeled, and are excluded from every summed figure.
- Renewal options. "Up to $50.2B with all renewal options" is upside, not a contract. Option value lives in its own field and its own column, never the headline.
- Circular deals. When the chip supplier finances its own customer, both the financing and the purchase can be real, and adding them still overstates net external demand. Circular rows carry a visible ↻ flag; the methodology position is flag, never net.
- MW before dollars. Contract dollars get restated, re-based and re-reported as prices move; megawatts and terms almost never do. Every dollar figure carries the date it was stated. Capacity leads the aggregates.
Verification
Every figure passes four checks before a row is published:
- Scale: does the value fit the announcing company's size and prior deals?
- Arithmetic: value, megawatts and term must multiply out to a sane price per MW-year; totals must equal their parts.
- Consistency: the row must not contradict figures already published on this site or in the ledger without a logged revision explaining why.
- Sourcing: two independent sources, one primary or tier-1, recorded on the row itself.
A validation suite enforces the mechanical half of these rules in CI; a row that fails cannot be published at all. When a published figure later proves wrong, the row is corrected and the change is logged in the changelog: corrections stay visible, they are never silent.
The Candidate Queue
Deals we believe exist but have not yet verified to the standard above. Listing them here is deliberate: it tells you what the ledger is missing, and it stops an unverified figure from borrowing the credibility of the verified ones.
xAI Colossus expansion and any third-party compute or financing deals at ledger scale.
Holding because: Not yet researched in-session; xAI discloses irregularly, mostly via posts rather than filings.
Stargate site-level build contracts (Abilene/Crusoe, additional sites) that may deserve rows distinct from any top-level OpenAI-Oracle contract.
Holding because: Not yet researched in-session; high double-counting risk against the Oracle contract, needs careful expansion_of/basis mapping.
Iron Mountain signed 75 MW of new data center leases subsequent to Q2 2026 quarter-end (51 MW Mumbai, 25 MW London) with unnamed 'major global hyperscalers', on top of 110 MW YTD leasing through July.
Holding because: No counterparty named and no per-lease dollar figure disclosed as of the 2026-08-05 Q2 earnings materials; below the ledger's specificity bar even though MW clears the 50 MW threshold. Needs the actual lease agreement or a named tenant.
Hyperscale Data (NYSE American: GPUS) signed a 10-year MSA (plus two 5-year extension options) with an unnamed California-based neocloud provider for 20 MW of critical AI compute capacity at its Michigan data center campus, expandable to 52 MW; 'in excess of $1.2B' at Maximum Term, up to ~$3B with all options and expansions exercised. Announced 2026-06-24 via PRNewswire; restated in an 8-K filed 2026-08-04.
Holding because: Meets the $100M/50MW inclusion bar on paper, but GPUS is a thinly-covered micro-cap (formerly Ault Capital-affiliated) with no tier-1 pickup found, an unnamed counterparty, and a headline value built almost entirely from unexercised renewal/expansion options (the disclosed base 20MW/no-options figure was not separately broken out). Needs the base-term-only dollar figure isolated from the Maximum Term figure, and ideally one more independent source, before it can be written as company_stated with max_with_options_usd used correctly.
Nvidia and SK Group announced a partnership on 2026-07-24 that Nvidia values at 'more than $500 billion over multiple years', covering AI data centers and a long-term SK Hynix HBM4 memory supply agreement for Nvidia's Vera Rubin chips.
Holding because: Explicitly described as letters of intent, not a completed supply contract, so status would be loi_mou (excluded from binding aggregates) at best. The $500B figure blends data-center investment and memory supply into one number; needs the two components split out (memory purchase commitment vs. data center investment are different deal_types) and each verified against a primary source (Nvidia/SK 8-K or press release) before any row, given the scale ($500B would be the single largest row in the ledger if binding).
The National Nuclear Security Administration selected Amentum to negotiate a phased lease at the Savannah River Site (SC) for a 1 GW AI data center plus about 2 GW of dedicated on-site generation.
Holding because: Not yet researched in-session. Government counterparty (NNSA) is an unusual fit for the ledger's inclusion criteria (publicly traded/hyperscaler/AI-lab-scale party), no dollar value found yet, and 'selected to negotiate' suggests this may not yet be a binding or even signed agreement (could be framework/reported status at best).
Core Scientific's pre-existing CoreWeave data center lease(s), predating the new 2026-07-28 AMD deal. The AMD press release states the AMD deal 'doubled' Core Scientific's total leased AI capacity to ~1.1 GW, implying roughly 570 MW was already leased (most likely to CoreWeave, which has a well-known, long-running commercial relationship with Core Scientific dating to 2025).
Holding because: Not yet researched in-session; needs the original CoreWeave-Core Scientific lease terms (value, MW, term, dates) pulled from primary sources, since it predates this ledger and could be a large missing row similar to the TeraWulf and Galaxy Digital gaps found this week.
Sharon AI Holdings (SHAZ) has several other recently-announced contracts beyond the $373M deal added to the ledger this week: a 2026-04-01 five-year $1.25B AI infrastructure agreement with ESDS Software Solutions Ltd (8,200 Nvidia B300 GPUs, Australia, revenue from Q3 2026), a separate ~US$1.32B five-year cloud agreement with a 'global AI Lab', a ~$950M deal (May 2026) with a global technology company with major APAC presence, and $8.8B of total disclosed contracted revenue against 212 MW of capacity. Update 2026-08-14: the ~$4.9B gap between those four contracts ($3.89B combined) and the $8.8B total is explained by a six-year, $4.9B Nvidia strategic compute collaboration (up to 40,000 GB300 GPUs / 72MW) first announced 2026-06-12 and reiterated at Q2 2026 earnings; adding it closes the reconciliation almost exactly ($373M + $1.25B + $1.32B + $950M + $4.9B ≈ $8.79B ≈ $8.8B).
Holding because: Same thin-coverage caveat as the $373M row already added, now including the $4.9B Nvidia collaboration: all sourcing found is SharonAI's own press releases/8-Ks plus trade press and wire aggregators (StockTitan, Benzinga, TechTimes, DataCenterDynamics, ConvergeDigest, Grafa, BusinessWire), no Reuters/Bloomberg/CNBC/WSJ/FT pickup for any of the five contracts. A Bleecker Street Research short-seller report (bleeckerstreetresearch.com/research/shaz, dated 2026-04-30, flagged 2026-08-14) specifically challenges the ESDS $1.25B contract's credibility: ESDS's own disclosed FY2025 revenue ($39.9M) and total assets ($69.5M) are far below the implied ~$250M/year payment obligation and the $140M letter-of-credit requirement, and flags a retracted 'NVIDIA is a strategic shareholder' claim (asserted in a 10-K, then walked back via 8-K two weeks later). Update 2026-08-21: an 8-K filed 2026-08-20 disclosed customer acceptance of Phase 1 under the $950M contract (escrow release, revenue still staged for Q3/Q4 2026) -- a milestone, not new corroboration, sourced only to SharonAI's own release. Two S-1/A amendments (2026-08-18, 2026-08-20) are routine secondary-resale-registration housekeeping restating the same figures, not new disclosures. More importantly, SharonAI's Q2 2026 results (reported 2026-08-06/08-13) showed actual revenue of just $1.93M against the $8.8B claimed total contract value, with the company itself pushing 'material revenue' out to Q4 2026 -- this is company-reported and doesn't independently corroborate anything, but it sharpens exactly the credibility gap Bleecker Street raised. No tier-1 outlet has picked up any of the five contracts. This argues for holding the whole cluster at needs_verification until either tier-1 pickup appears or the counterparty capacity questions are resolved.
CoreWeave and quantitative trading firm Hudson River Trading announced a multi-year AI cloud deal on 2026-08-20, built on Nvidia Vera Rubin NVL72 compute for trading research and model development. Confirmed by both a CoreWeave press release and independent Bloomberg reporting. Notable as a new buyer category for the ledger (a quant trading firm, not an AI lab or hyperscaler).
Holding because: No dollar value or MW/capacity figure disclosed by either party; CoreWeave's own CRO explicitly declined to give a number when asked, describing it only as 'multi-billion-dollar'. Fails the ledger's inclusion criteria (a deal needs a disclosed dollar value or a disclosed MW figure) as reported. Revisit if either company discloses a specific figure (e.g. at a future earnings call) or if a credible outlet publishes a sourced estimate.
License & How to Cite
The dataset is licensed CC BY 4.0. Use it, republish it, chart it, build products on it, including commercially. The only requirement is attribution with a link. Suggested forms:
AI Compute Deal Ledger, Regards of Wallstreet, retrieved 2026-08-23, https://www.regardsofwallstreet.com/data/ai-deals
Source: Regards of Wallstreet AI Compute Deal Ledger (CC BY 4.0)
Machine-readable exports: JSON · CSV. Corrections and missing deals: contact us.